{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3365619-346f-4de2-bb5f-3524a036e0d6", "symbol": "JAGE", "name": "JPM Global AggregateBond Active UCITS ETF - EUR Hedged (acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.85, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -1.847, "architecture_energy": 10.441, "architecture_maturity": 17.829, "architecture_confidence": 39.593, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 69.93, "rotation_up": 19.05, "upward_expansion": 20.37, "deceleration": 67.88, "rotation_down": 42.51, "downward_expansion": 29.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.5384, 10.5572, 10.541981, 10.54194 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 10.55, "trend_reference": 10.5566, "distance_from_trend": -0.000625, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.31034, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.023245, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.513292, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.007899, "excess_performance": -0.178791, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000625, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000619, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.023245, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00065, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145133, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023866, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007899, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.566293, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1785, "relative_activity": 0.108299, "balance": 2.566293, "dry_up": 0.119857, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006329, "annualized_volatility": 0.044051, "from_high_reference": -0.019517, "from_low_reference": 0.021891 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.5566, "fair_value_reference": 10.31034, "structural_low": 10.324, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.000193, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00846, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.003875, "worst_return": -0.004152, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.004262, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.086185, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.004262, "worst_return": 0.004262, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.027315, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.110283, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.027315, "worst_return": 0.027315, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.019372, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.256626, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.019372, "worst_return": 0.019372, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003681, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.016148, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003784, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00189, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005382, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001331, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000566, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001703, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005145, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-10-20", "close": 9.448, "volume": 220, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, 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"relative_strength": -12.672023, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.888118, "energy": 34.061435, "activity_lines": [ 10.584533, 10.5668, 10.538324, 10.547204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.554, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 18821.35, "trend": 10.5612, "fair_value": 10.307407, "relative_strength": -12.168501, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.579046, "energy": 10.950475, "activity_lines": [ 10.570667, 10.569236, 10.541086, 10.54671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.496, "volume": 3980, "typical_volume": 18994.15, "trend": 10.558733, "fair_value": 10.308699, "relative_strength": -12.835516, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.888779, "energy": 22.082671, "activity_lines": [ 10.5404, 10.558582, 10.53881, 10.542503 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.55, "volume": 1785, "typical_volume": 16482.15, "trend": 10.5566, "fair_value": 10.31034, "relative_strength": -14.513292, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.847277, "energy": 10.440624, "activity_lines": [ 10.5384, 10.5572, 10.541981, 10.54194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }