{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a336bf24-e506-457f-8b8c-c1f7199c06b4", "symbol": "KOF", "name": "Kaufman & Broad S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.889, "architecture_energy": 18.034, "architecture_maturity": 90.3, "architecture_confidence": 55.071, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.71, "rotation_up": 27.95, "upward_expansion": 25.56, "deceleration": 52.79, "rotation_down": 19.53, "downward_expansion": 47.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.466666, 25.238182, 25.228788, 26.064063 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 25.25, "trend_reference": 27.371812, "distance_from_trend": -0.077518, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.217739, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.105173, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.467943, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.202212, "excess_performance": -0.255523, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077518, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051297, "read": "Falling" 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23.700001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.007968, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.608696, "median_excess_return": -0.009436, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 0.208437, "worst_return": -0.127706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.002115, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.03645, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.199179, "worst_return": -0.143068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.022071, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.001863, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.211499, "worst_return": -0.160405, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -11.7916, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.733106, "energy": 23.894468, "activity_lines": [ 25.496667, 25.135454, 25.358354, 26.366232 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.299999, "volume": 118271, "typical_volume": 138615.7, "trend": 27.546812, "fair_value": 28.196896, "relative_strength": -14.863498, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.877731, "energy": 23.109609, "activity_lines": [ 25.513333, 25.193636, 25.28619, 26.212244 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.25, "volume": 140347, "typical_volume": 137736.25, "trend": 27.371812, "fair_value": 28.217739, "relative_strength": -16.467943, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.888865, "energy": 18.034355, "activity_lines": [ 25.466666, 25.238182, 25.228788, 26.064063 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }