{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a339521e-2431-4a21-b984-ce4b6c1d027d", "symbol": "LDI", "name": "Loandepot Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.778, "architecture_energy": 80.848, "architecture_maturity": 68.251, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.2, "rotation_up": 19.2, "upward_expansion": 18.77, "deceleration": 38.2, "rotation_down": 68.65, "downward_expansion": 94.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.00092, 1.066887, 1.173566, 1.298944 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.9518, "trend_reference": 1.550433, "distance_from_trend": -0.386107, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.021109, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.52907, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -59.629993, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.557302, "excess_performance": -0.682927, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.386107, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.235863, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.52907, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196124, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.5963, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178857, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.557302, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.376062, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16763587, "relative_activity": 1.724033, "balance": 0.376062, "dry_up": 1.338617, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.161039, "annualized_volatility": 0.620233, "from_high_reference": -0.811525, "from_low_reference": 0.027307 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.550433, "fair_value_reference": 2.021109, "structural_low": 0.9265, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.002569, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002253, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.881356, "worst_return": -0.357488, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.158654, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.143494, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.542373, "worst_return": -0.396552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.2246, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.181516, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": 0.022989, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067308, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07772, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.189655, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.129771, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047872, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.445545, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.416201, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.099656, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.231939, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.540193, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.9, "volume": 1283349, "typical_volume": 1445667.75, "trend": 1.997333, "fair_value": 5.572357, "relative_strength": -4.713031, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.907868, 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"energy": 55.024315, "activity_lines": [ 1.146, 1.169455, 1.273, 1.428946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.01, "volume": 12742794, "typical_volume": 10141473.7, "trend": 1.652667, "fair_value": 2.03641, "relative_strength": -55.985403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.898687, "energy": 59.96238, "activity_lines": [ 1.095333, 1.136, 1.239238, 1.385097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.9812, "volume": 14512049, "typical_volume": 9908031.4, "trend": 1.615707, "fair_value": 2.028533, "relative_strength": -57.32926, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.693465, "energy": 74.804944, "activity_lines": [ 1.045733, 1.101673, 1.206352, 1.341776 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.9518, "volume": 16763587, "typical_volume": 9723474.75, "trend": 1.550433, "fair_value": 2.021109, "relative_strength": -59.629993, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.778006, "energy": 80.8483, "activity_lines": [ 1.00092, 1.066887, 1.173566, 1.298944 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }