{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3398292-509e-46a0-9a43-6c5cad22be55", "symbol": "OVID", "name": "Ovid Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.333, "architecture_energy": 13.617, "architecture_maturity": 46.189, "architecture_confidence": 85.055, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.43, "rotation_up": 30.5, "upward_expansion": 44.3, "deceleration": 76.96, "rotation_down": 28.57, "downward_expansion": 31.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.428, 2.446909, 2.498, 2.435376 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2.63, "trend_reference": 2.265667, "distance_from_trend": 0.160806, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.882175, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.39732, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 20.630693, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.64375, "excess_performance": 0.456296, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.160806, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.143987, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.39732, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024165, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.206307, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.48995, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.64375, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.576493, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7811649, "relative_activity": 0.653639, "balance": 0.576493, "dry_up": 0.625843, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127698, "annualized_volatility": 0.780971, "from_high_reference": -0.152979, "from_low_reference": 4.063535 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.265667, "fair_value_reference": 1.882175, "structural_low": 1.36, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.002762, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.020073, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.371681, "worst_return": -0.259333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.082596, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.098253, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.632743, "worst_return": -0.377881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.2971, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.160777, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.015326, "worst_return": -0.706017, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.20354, 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"2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.154092, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007973, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.389509, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.872727, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.279693, "active": false }, { "regime": 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6163188, "typical_volume": 14985023.3, "trend": 2.2, "fair_value": 1.904354, "relative_strength": 22.112355, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.658601, "energy": 22.288308, "activity_lines": [ 2.514667, 2.489636, 2.531524, 2.401312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.33, "volume": 9863492, "typical_volume": 14937592.85, "trend": 2.218333, "fair_value": 1.896726, "relative_strength": 16.695626, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.163031, "energy": 13.874649, "activity_lines": [ 2.46, 2.458727, 2.516048, 2.409699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.22, "volume": 6079522, "typical_volume": 14472305.9, "trend": 2.233667, "fair_value": 1.888521, "relative_strength": 8.913007, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.498919, "energy": 9.120436, "activity_lines": [ 2.364667, 2.413273, 2.488095, 2.409806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.63, "volume": 7811649, "typical_volume": 11951013.2, "trend": 2.265667, "fair_value": 1.882175, "relative_strength": 20.630693, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.332953, "energy": 13.616513, "activity_lines": [ 2.428, 2.446909, 2.498, 2.435376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }