{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a33b1ad3-68a1-4636-92bc-7d85ee9042f6", "symbol": "8091", "name": "OOH Holdings Limited", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 67.6, "architecture_energy": 87.392, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.422, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.33, "rotation_up": 77.79, "upward_expansion": 64.63, "deceleration": 26.64, "rotation_down": 16.0, "downward_expansion": 27.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.039667, 0.036018, 0.034457, 0.034394 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.046, "trend_reference": 0.034833, "distance_from_trend": 0.320574, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.03191, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.441543, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 33.621569, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.277778, "excess_performance": 0.303694, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.320574, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016933, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.441543, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.34273, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.336216, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.273386, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.277778, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 830000, "relative_activity": 2.161458, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 2.604167, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050167, "annualized_volatility": 0.744929, "from_high_reference": -0.163636, "from_low_reference": 0.642857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.034833, "fair_value_reference": 0.03191, "structural_low": 0.028, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.079545, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.052235, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.192308, "worst_return": -0.192308, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.113636, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.039254, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.576923, "worst_return": -0.153846, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.002622, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.011945, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.346154, "worst_return": -0.340909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.09375, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.129032, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2026-09-04", "end": "2026-09-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.121951, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 0.035, "volume": 40000, "typical_volume": 323000.0, "trend": 0.0343, "fair_value": 0.067821, "relative_strength": 2.210151, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.652669, "energy": 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0.033351 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 0.032, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 428500.0, "trend": 0.034433, "fair_value": 0.031782, "relative_strength": -10.3055, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.130457, "energy": 37.754299, "activity_lines": [ 0.031467, 0.031127, 0.032271, 0.033196 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 0.035, "volume": 70000, "typical_volume": 432000.0, "trend": 0.0344, "fair_value": 0.031788, "relative_strength": -0.28533, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.681057, "energy": 23.236943, "activity_lines": [ 0.0328, 0.031764, 0.032457, 0.033232 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 0.041, "volume": 3100000, "typical_volume": 576000.0, "trend": 0.0346, "fair_value": 0.031833, "relative_strength": 16.083406, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.291, "energy": 49.278487, "activity_lines": [ 0.0358, 0.033491, 0.033219, 0.033658 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 0.046, "volume": 830000, "typical_volume": 384000.0, "trend": 0.034833, "fair_value": 0.03191, "relative_strength": 33.621569, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 67.600181, "energy": 87.391636, "activity_lines": [ 0.039667, 0.036018, 0.034457, 0.034394 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }