{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a33f3324-ddbb-4d0e-9fad-7f03b4c2a202", "symbol": "002987", "name": "Northking Information Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.342, "architecture_energy": 34.259, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.782, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.65, "rotation_up": 27.58, "upward_expansion": 17.6, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 36.54, "downward_expansion": 67.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.818, 10.587091, 11.169138, 11.912369 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.3, "trend_reference": 13.095337, "distance_from_trend": -0.137097, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.72933, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.053188, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.601416, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.275889, "excess_performance": -0.283288, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.137097, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123431, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.053188, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169912, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.276014, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058129, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.275889, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.574515, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 185042261, "relative_activity": 3.051824, "balance": 0.574515, "dry_up": 2.113375, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09005, "annualized_volatility": 0.369993, "from_high_reference": -0.514539, "from_low_reference": 0.225597 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.095337, "fair_value_reference": 10.72933, "structural_low": 9.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.036561, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.608696, "median_excess_return": -0.020231, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.234631, "worst_return": -0.155052, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.024586, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.007539, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.401186, "worst_return": -0.304267, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.024612, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.090523, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.762545, "worst_return": -0.444614, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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11.168569, 12.065685, 12.943374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.7, "volume": 54958445, "typical_volume": 48827199.5, "trend": 13.862875, "fair_value": 10.677788, "relative_strength": -44.348022, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.808465, "energy": 91.42985, "activity_lines": [ 10.12, 10.817973, 11.759708, 12.66226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.5, "volume": 56718881, "typical_volume": 48968293.85, "trend": 13.659091, "fair_value": 10.681299, "relative_strength": -38.960047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.980934, "energy": 89.933308, "activity_lines": [ 9.806667, 10.477881, 11.46335, 12.380785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.49, "volume": 151447828, "typical_volume": 52579249.0, "trend": 13.484482, "fair_value": 10.69325, "relative_strength": -31.90451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.954564, "energy": 65.591996, "activity_lines": [ 9.955333, 10.380364, 11.291677, 12.176327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.4, "volume": 119354907, "typical_volume": 55411414.0, "trend": 13.306875, "fair_value": 10.709699, "relative_strength": -23.985557, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.41775, "energy": 53.900657, "activity_lines": [ 10.454667, 10.483636, 11.22783, 12.041844 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.3, "volume": 185042261, "typical_volume": 60633332.05, "trend": 13.095337, "fair_value": 10.72933, "relative_strength": -27.601416, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.342027, "energy": 34.258697, "activity_lines": [ 10.818, 10.587091, 11.169138, 11.912369 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }