{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a34236ee-b0eb-4aa5-a06c-8c30a6fd3406", "symbol": "SOFI", "name": "SoFi Technologies Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.168, "architecture_energy": 12.304, "architecture_maturity": 23.781, "architecture_confidence": 63.813, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.47, "rotation_up": 22.32, "upward_expansion": 18.11, "deceleration": 55.1, "rotation_down": 39.36, "downward_expansion": 58.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.324, 17.482727, 17.247857, 17.365118 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 18.38, "trend_reference": 18.208333, "distance_from_trend": 0.009428, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.425449, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.274137, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.646208, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.118888, "excess_performance": -0.306341, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009428, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156462, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.274137, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121752, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.276462, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.126818, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.118888, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.9705, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 298763297, "relative_activity": 0.851286, "balance": 0.9705, "dry_up": 1.159599, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115107, "annualized_volatility": 0.556091, "from_high_reference": -0.438436, "from_low_reference": 0.235215 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.208333, "fair_value_reference": 14.425449, "structural_low": 14.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.056576, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.04836, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.629482, "worst_return": -0.208531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.048822, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.041632, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 1.074468, "worst_return": -0.248128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.38247, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.215007, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.950798, "worst_return": -0.309091, "sufficient": true }, { 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"down", "direction": -9.928684, "energy": 12.122033, "activity_lines": [ 17.994, 17.616182, 17.247143, 17.71828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.46, "volume": 424263794, "typical_volume": 350590166.15, "trend": 18.880667, "fair_value": 14.319423, "relative_strength": -32.561786, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.552071, "energy": 13.87817, "activity_lines": [ 17.474667, 17.478909, 17.181143, 17.53929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.31, "volume": 483423484, "typical_volume": 358931765.75, "trend": 18.509, "fair_value": 14.363077, "relative_strength": -33.008338, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.350811, "energy": 19.561032, "activity_lines": [ 17.002, 17.298909, 17.112476, 17.373441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.38, "volume": 298763297, "typical_volume": 350955249.65, "trend": 18.208333, "fair_value": 14.425449, "relative_strength": -27.646208, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.167809, "energy": 12.303598, "activity_lines": [ 17.324, 17.482727, 17.247857, 17.365118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }