{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3424f0d-1ec3-45da-9569-5848da70ac90", "symbol": "WPRT", "name": "Westport Fuel Systems Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.425, "architecture_energy": 27.987, "architecture_maturity": 37.358, "architecture_confidence": 68.66, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.63, "rotation_up": 14.41, "upward_expansion": 15.23, "deceleration": 66.57, "rotation_down": 60.97, "downward_expansion": 40.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.619333, 2.775091, 2.796667, 2.784301 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.63, "trend_reference": 2.775667, "distance_from_trend": -0.05248, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.549936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.526121, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.833535, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.003817, "excess_performance": -0.116604, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.05248, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054051, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.526121, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039018, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178335, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093595, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003817, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.62471, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13000, "relative_activity": 0.494955, "balance": 0.62471, "dry_up": 1.184085, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113776, "annualized_volatility": 0.496371, "from_high_reference": -0.499048, "from_low_reference": 0.223256 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.775667, "fair_value_reference": 5.549936, "structural_low": 2.35, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.005252, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.18304, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049444, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.203108, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009554, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.164725, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.186715, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.282197, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06087, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.160256, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.31203, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.109635, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064151, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.13, "volume": 75800, "typical_volume": 89097.0, "trend": 12.089333, "fair_value": 34.463974, "relative_strength": -16.346067, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.532127, "energy": 18.472131, "activity_lines": [ 11.820667, 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25190.0, "trend": 2.747, "fair_value": 5.820321, "relative_strength": -15.164529, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.074852, "energy": 60.551686, "activity_lines": [ 3.076, 2.965091, 2.869333, 2.824129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.68, "volume": 35000, "typical_volume": 25965.0, "trend": 2.758667, "fair_value": 5.747051, "relative_strength": -19.918557, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.617666, "energy": 24.714255, "activity_lines": [ 2.952667, 2.927636, 2.85681, 2.819806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.65, "volume": 44000, "typical_volume": 25615.0, "trend": 2.772, "fair_value": 5.675256, "relative_strength": -18.996803, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.322792, "energy": 13.688733, "activity_lines": [ 2.814, 2.885455, 2.841857, 2.812796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.48, "volume": 32400, "typical_volume": 26560.0, "trend": 2.779667, "fair_value": 5.602756, "relative_strength": -21.983923, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.798648, "energy": 25.252142, "activity_lines": [ 2.658, 2.813818, 2.81119, 2.793957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.63, "volume": 13000, "typical_volume": 26265.0, "trend": 2.775667, "fair_value": 5.549936, "relative_strength": -17.833535, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.425204, "energy": 27.986546, "activity_lines": [ 2.619333, 2.775091, 2.796667, 2.784301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }