{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a342c3d7-692c-4aec-b9f8-be2d98449197", "symbol": "CNDD", "name": "BetaPro S&P/TSX 60 -2x Daily Bear ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -89.015, "architecture_energy": 75.022, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.039, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.46, "rotation_up": 22.82, "upward_expansion": 12.58, "deceleration": 48.11, "rotation_down": 72.71, "downward_expansion": 90.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.882667, 11.065818, 11.473048, 11.909118 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 10.51, "trend_reference": 12.461333, "distance_from_trend": -0.156591, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.9825, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.542696, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.318194, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.248749, "excess_performance": -0.36917, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.156591, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085429, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.542696, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040381, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.333182, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011551, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.248749, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.29032, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 651500, "relative_activity": 0.711412, "balance": 0.29032, "dry_up": 1.690298, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035936, "annualized_volatility": 0.220198, "from_high_reference": -0.430043, "from_low_reference": 0.010577 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.461333, "fair_value_reference": 22.9825, "structural_low": 10.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 48, "median_return": -0.031644, "positive_rate": 0.291667, "directional_follow_through": 0.708333, "median_excess_return": -0.048357, "regime_survival": 0.895833, "best_return": 0.155229, "worst_return": -0.123611, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.092262, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.129725, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.262295, "worst_return": -0.180485, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.131585, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.181109, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.145833, "worst_return": -0.262295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.170806, "energy": 85.186445, "activity_lines": [ 11.123333, 11.295091, 11.737143, 12.145441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.06, "volume": 2015100, "typical_volume": 919925.0, "trend": 12.564667, "fair_value": 23.13468, "relative_strength": -28.716697, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.467674, "energy": 75.313455, "activity_lines": [ 11.084, 11.222545, 11.625, 12.041677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.51, "volume": 651500, "typical_volume": 915785.0, "trend": 12.461333, "fair_value": 22.9825, "relative_strength": -33.318194, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.015127, "energy": 75.022082, "activity_lines": [ 10.882667, 11.065818, 11.473048, 11.909118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }