{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a34c47dd-c800-4c21-9331-0cec44c1ff27", "symbol": "002592", "name": "Nanning Baling Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.193, "architecture_energy": 61.801, "architecture_maturity": 64.287, "architecture_confidence": 95.057, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.9, "rotation_up": 25.83, "upward_expansion": 11.67, "deceleration": 60.02, "rotation_down": 53.52, "downward_expansion": 82.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.994, 6.118545, 6.603592, 7.232512 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.14, "trend_reference": 8.067276, "distance_from_trend": -0.238901, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.905384, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.039729, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.413668, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.411858, "excess_performance": -0.419258, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.238901, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043324, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.039729, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.382216, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.224137, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11358, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.411858, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.157012, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20783900, "relative_activity": 1.272102, "balance": 0.157012, "dry_up": 0.9984, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09428, "annualized_volatility": 0.397962, "from_high_reference": -0.461553, "from_low_reference": 0.176245 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.067276, "fair_value_reference": 5.905384, "structural_low": 5.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.005964, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.016413, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.10396, "worst_return": -0.177814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.051282, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.079692, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.246888, "worst_return": -0.358814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.06894, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030075, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.114108, "worst_return": -0.24805, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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7.66829 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.5, "volume": 15228100, "typical_volume": 16576597.35, "trend": 8.189686, "fair_value": 5.888037, "relative_strength": -28.615159, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.233216, "energy": 71.168419, "activity_lines": [ 5.951333, 6.211273, 6.841157, 7.49168 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.17, "volume": 14195100, "typical_volume": 16073777.15, "trend": 8.137425, "fair_value": 5.897365, "relative_strength": -18.368598, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.230801, "energy": 64.163113, "activity_lines": [ 5.980667, 6.156182, 6.714843, 7.361378 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.14, "volume": 20783900, "typical_volume": 16338237.15, "trend": 8.067276, "fair_value": 5.905384, "relative_strength": -22.413668, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.193156, "energy": 61.800657, "activity_lines": [ 5.994, 6.118545, 6.603592, 7.232512 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }