{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a34db36b-fddb-4008-bb9f-119be3392c1a", "symbol": "BRLN", "name": "BlackRock Floating Rate Loan ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 92.177, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 14.048, "architecture_energy": 10.477, "architecture_maturity": 16.629, "architecture_confidence": 77.734, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.28, "rotation_up": 24.11, "upward_expansion": 46.33, "deceleration": 82.34, "rotation_down": 33.05, "downward_expansion": 29.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.420762, 50.472455, 50.483979, 50.394725 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 50.49, "trend_reference": 50.300092, "distance_from_trend": 0.003776, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.495185, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.063055, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.279801, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.011018, "excess_performance": -0.114606, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003776, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003114, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.063055, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014289, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102798, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00294, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011018, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.247948, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45402, "relative_activity": 1.375568, "balance": 1.247948, "dry_up": 0.855026, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009668, "annualized_volatility": 0.032607, "from_high_reference": -0.010905, "from_low_reference": 0.025919 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.300092, "fair_value_reference": 47.495185, "structural_low": 49.34422, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.006362, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.031457, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.008472, "worst_return": -0.003205, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.017248, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.092661, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.017248, "worst_return": 0.017248, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.039131, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.158746, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.039131, "worst_return": 0.039131, "sufficient": false }, { 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46.892371, "energy": 30.881166, "activity_lines": [ 50.608838, 50.598143, 50.445292, 50.351143 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 50.546339, "volume": 13990, "typical_volume": 38570.45, "trend": 50.284292, "fair_value": 47.287686, "relative_strength": -9.158577, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.177433, "energy": 24.61105, "activity_lines": [ 50.580259, 50.598682, 50.46959, 50.368914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.282662, "volume": 14560, "typical_volume": 35867.65, "trend": 50.288142, "fair_value": 47.33882, "relative_strength": -7.937797, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.766198, "energy": 15.960462, "activity_lines": [ 50.461312, 50.545052, 50.467008, 50.368809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.407038, "volume": 30409, "typical_volume": 35510.15, "trend": 50.293376, "fair_value": 47.391216, "relative_strength": -6.911857, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.745647, "energy": 17.999757, "activity_lines": [ 50.405558, 50.515841, 50.473472, 50.37648 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.382163, "volume": 22513, "typical_volume": 34139.25, "trend": 50.295993, "fair_value": 47.443285, "relative_strength": -7.649289, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.007566, "energy": 13.927121, "activity_lines": [ 50.384153, 50.483813, 50.474868, 50.382208 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.49, "volume": 45402, "typical_volume": 33006.0, "trend": 50.300092, "fair_value": 47.495185, "relative_strength": -10.279801, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.04834, "energy": 10.476603, "activity_lines": [ 50.420762, 50.472455, 50.483979, 50.394725 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }