{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a34f4237-9a08-4c44-9e7d-56cab19c0705", "symbol": "2377", "name": "Micro-Star International Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 64.495, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.736, "architecture_energy": 44.805, "architecture_maturity": 61.868, "architecture_confidence": 58.899, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.59, "rotation_up": 47.05, "upward_expansion": 77.79, "deceleration": 68.03, "rotation_down": 25.43, "downward_expansion": 6.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 145.951034, 143.834613, 137.097048, 127.411305 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 141.5, "trend_reference": 115.567588, "distance_from_trend": 0.224392, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 145.261829, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.025897, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.194921, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.560088, "excess_performance": 0.214356, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.224392, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135985, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.025897, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130215, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081949, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.21002, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.560088, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.972209, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68188184, "relative_activity": 0.667727, "balance": 2.972209, "dry_up": 0.866565, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105217, "annualized_volatility": 0.364084, "from_high_reference": -0.160367, "from_low_reference": 0.664706 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 115.567588, "fair_value_reference": 145.261829, "structural_low": 85.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.0053, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01332, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.133758, "worst_return": -0.212828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.008256, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.058446, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.229391, "worst_return": -0.265789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.036313, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.077591, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.372, "worst_return": -0.243902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.672928, "energy": 46.18751, "activity_lines": [ 140.278342, 139.409763, 129.406479, 120.465127 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 148.613647, "volume": 75655660, "typical_volume": 94122386.4, "trend": 112.249534, "fair_value": 145.457983, "relative_strength": -4.25759, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.208729, "energy": 47.694415, "activity_lines": [ 142.7714, 141.254564, 132.287434, 122.924777 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 154.441635, "volume": 137814784, "typical_volume": 99744884.1, "trend": 114.150921, "fair_value": 145.38555, "relative_strength": -2.520316, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.757646, "energy": 53.448737, "activity_lines": [ 146.832877, 143.838752, 135.46099, 125.646848 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 141.5, "volume": 68188184, "typical_volume": 102119927.15, "trend": 115.567588, "fair_value": 145.261829, "relative_strength": -8.194921, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.73628, "energy": 44.805475, "activity_lines": [ 145.951034, 143.834613, 137.097048, 127.411305 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }