{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3539e7e-70b1-4909-96d1-e981d0228c4e", "symbol": "AMEW", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi MSCI World Swap UCITS ETF EUR Acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.528, "architecture_energy": 68.368, "architecture_maturity": 80.68, "architecture_confidence": 74.177, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.12, "rotation_up": 54.8, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.16, "rotation_down": 28.51, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 686.225338, 683.161464, 673.003914, 659.223534 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 699.799988, "trend_reference": 643.176005, "distance_from_trend": 0.088038, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 546.244489, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.281111, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.04895, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.140148, "excess_performance": 0.075508, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088038, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040871, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.281111, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041116, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.04049, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04865, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.140148, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.58988, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11852, "relative_activity": 1.594994, "balance": 3.58988, "dry_up": 0.98486, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017308, "annualized_volatility": 0.106679, "from_high_reference": -0.001598, "from_low_reference": 0.237576 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 643.176005, "fair_value_reference": 546.244489, "structural_low": 583.840027, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.009527, "positive_rate": 0.641026, "directional_follow_through": 0.641026, "median_excess_return": 0.002517, "regime_survival": 0.820513, "best_return": 0.066023, "worst_return": -0.08376, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.026227, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.035736, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.098703, "worst_return": -0.153635, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.081026, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.071358, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.149983, "worst_return": -0.0769, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-24", "close": 681.559998, "volume": 5136, "typical_volume": 7783.5, "trend": 638.280672, "fair_value": 542.866027, "relative_strength": 6.732766, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.38281, "energy": 64.498268, "activity_lines": [ 681.821346, 679.182921, 665.97401, 652.964954 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 676.080017, "volume": 6319, "typical_volume": 7465.8, "trend": 640.591339, "fair_value": 544.469617, "relative_strength": 3.477765, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.032035, "energy": 59.31785, "activity_lines": [ 680.152014, 679.081832, 668.517725, 655.403622 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 699.799988, "volume": 11852, "typical_volume": 7430.75, "trend": 643.176005, "fair_value": 546.244489, "relative_strength": 4.04895, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.527912, "energy": 68.367748, "activity_lines": [ 686.225338, 683.161464, 673.003914, 659.223534 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }