{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a36c0354-29c9-4d70-855d-11e220daa399", "symbol": "9839", "name": "ChinaAMC MSCI China A 50 Connect ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.418, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.79, "architecture_energy": 14.584, "architecture_maturity": 52.654, "architecture_confidence": 87.901, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.84, "rotation_up": 25.28, "upward_expansion": 47.5, "deceleration": 84.82, "rotation_down": 27.84, "downward_expansion": 25.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.099791, 4.107963, 4.124251, 4.067935 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 4.164, "trend_reference": 3.991003, "distance_from_trend": 0.043347, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.077893, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.352873, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.134556, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.105682, "excess_performance": 0.139264, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043347, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032209, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.352873, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058913, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.081346, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059174, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.105682, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.577659, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 650, "relative_activity": 0.010041, "balance": 0.577659, "dry_up": 2.186136, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034101, "annualized_volatility": 0.160117, "from_high_reference": -0.044516, "from_low_reference": 0.346701 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.991003, "fair_value_reference": 3.077893, "structural_low": 3.616, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.011097, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.022821, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.078275, "worst_return": -0.040648, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.045961, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.046297, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0923, "worst_return": -0.033537, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.057088, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.086436, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.090582, "worst_return": 0.023595, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.116314, 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"orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054035, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010952, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027134, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01115, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018144, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017426, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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3.958747, "fair_value": 3.044994, "relative_strength": 14.964907, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.654512, "energy": 26.953795, "activity_lines": [ 4.129057, 4.162979, 4.110247, 4.039613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.965675, "volume": 460350, "typical_volume": 70655.0, "trend": 3.965936, "fair_value": 3.052939, "relative_strength": 9.221879, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.766646, "energy": 23.633783, "activity_lines": [ 4.063855, 4.124404, 4.104405, 4.04006 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.11, "volume": 67850, "typical_volume": 68867.5, "trend": 3.975469, "fair_value": 3.061001, "relative_strength": 10.766689, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.311801, "energy": 23.255063, "activity_lines": [ 4.06265, 4.115966, 4.111681, 4.049354 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.082, "volume": 37250, "typical_volume": 67740.0, "trend": 3.982536, "fair_value": 3.068847, "relative_strength": 5.631286, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.256176, "energy": 15.514021, "activity_lines": [ 4.066911, 4.103965, 4.114756, 4.056227 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.164, "volume": 650, "typical_volume": 64737.5, "trend": 3.991003, "fair_value": 3.077893, "relative_strength": 8.134556, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.790462, "energy": 14.583955, "activity_lines": [ 4.099791, 4.107963, 4.124251, 4.067935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }