{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a37060f1-e862-48bc-8f83-753a253bc429", "symbol": "8109", "name": "P-Duke Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.12, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.614, "architecture_energy": 18.113, "architecture_maturity": 49.548, "architecture_confidence": 72.641, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.06, "rotation_up": 31.45, "upward_expansion": 63.55, "deceleration": 84.96, "rotation_down": 28.18, "downward_expansion": 15.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 128.666667, 130.427273, 126.930952, 121.984068 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 131.0, "trend_reference": 115.67797, "distance_from_trend": 0.132454, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 90.986193, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.439779, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.147705, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.281391, "excess_performance": -0.159981, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.132454, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107479, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.439779, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.139776, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111477, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07601, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.281391, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.411151, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1156000, "relative_activity": 0.568847, "balance": 1.411151, "dry_up": 0.769035, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115385, "annualized_volatility": 0.497475, "from_high_reference": -0.213213, "from_low_reference": 0.663942 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 115.67797, "fair_value_reference": 90.986193, "structural_low": 94.398024, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.003058, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.035464, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.07125, "worst_return": -0.058706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.062674, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.097562, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.245575, "worst_return": -0.052326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.148575, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.059525, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.258946, "worst_return": 0.037409, "sufficient": true }, { 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"volume": 1499063, "typical_volume": 2022669.55, "trend": 114.655363, "fair_value": 90.725416, "relative_strength": -7.180771, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.259802, "energy": 20.94111, "activity_lines": [ 129.133333, 129.918182, 126.0, 120.929575 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 131.0, "volume": 1156000, "typical_volume": 2032180.05, "trend": 115.67797, "fair_value": 90.986193, "relative_strength": -11.147705, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.61382, "energy": 18.113269, "activity_lines": [ 128.666667, 130.427273, 126.930952, 121.984068 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }