{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3721a12-1a85-4393-8fd4-d399c2c15f15", "symbol": "NAT", "name": "NAT_NAT ABSOLUTE TECHNOLOGIES", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.466, "architecture_energy": 57.239, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.056, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.39, "rotation_up": 29.62, "upward_expansion": 11.27, "deceleration": 59.6, "rotation_down": 46.69, "downward_expansion": 82.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.766, 1.770364, 1.831857, 1.94243 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.78, "trend_reference": 2.100333, "distance_from_trend": -0.152515, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.650263, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.512364, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.757427, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.276423, "excess_performance": -0.468748, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152515, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149088, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.512364, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023276, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.397574, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02872, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.276423, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.835273, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 473100, "relative_activity": 2.337913, "balance": 0.835273, "dry_up": 1.657936, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047969, "annualized_volatility": 0.287946, "from_high_reference": -0.482558, "from_low_reference": 0.040936 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.100333, "fair_value_reference": 3.650263, "structural_low": 1.71, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.04898, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.077764, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.031646, "worst_return": -0.116564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.175, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.331512, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.006211, "worst_return": -0.291667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.180124, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.36069, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.180124, "worst_return": -0.180124, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.706196, "energy": 84.887245, "activity_lines": [ 1.768667, 1.826, 1.978429, 2.10957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.82, "volume": 280700, "typical_volume": 199845.0, "trend": 2.254667, "fair_value": 3.725634, "relative_strength": -43.520951, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.437239, "energy": 76.572377, "activity_lines": [ 1.782, 1.813636, 1.948524, 2.078989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.76, "volume": 391900, "typical_volume": 175220.0, "trend": 2.216667, "fair_value": 3.710034, "relative_strength": -44.63515, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.316059, "energy": 65.653074, "activity_lines": [ 1.776, 1.795455, 1.917476, 2.047075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.78, "volume": 456400, "typical_volume": 187280.0, "trend": 2.189333, "fair_value": 3.694836, "relative_strength": -43.571445, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.965319, "energy": 61.136562, "activity_lines": [ 1.778, 1.786364, 1.892524, 2.018903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.77, "volume": 363600, "typical_volume": 200470.0, "trend": 2.157667, "fair_value": 3.679799, "relative_strength": -43.080572, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.057602, "energy": 60.697735, "activity_lines": [ 1.775333, 1.778909, 1.870238, 1.991849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.74, "volume": 48900, "typical_volume": 196755.0, "trend": 2.128333, "fair_value": 3.664761, "relative_strength": -42.416319, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.962293, "energy": 63.911838, "activity_lines": [ 1.764, 1.769818, 1.84781, 1.964903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.78, "volume": 473100, "typical_volume": 202360.0, "trend": 2.100333, "fair_value": 3.650263, "relative_strength": -39.757427, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.466426, "energy": 57.239353, "activity_lines": [ 1.766, 1.770364, 1.831857, 1.94243 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }