{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3744cb5-c3b0-47a0-9774-3c2162938b1d", "symbol": "BOOK", "name": "Booking Holdings Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 80.406, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 90.784, "architecture_energy": 86.896, "architecture_maturity": 27.593, "architecture_confidence": 61.303, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.73, "rotation_up": 80.2, "upward_expansion": 92.16, "deceleration": 44.87, "rotation_down": 8.7, "downward_expansion": 18.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 169.760001, 163.622727, 155.807072, 153.241599 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 185.949997, "trend_reference": 152.428652, "distance_from_trend": 0.219915, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 154.997504, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.199697, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.713578, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.248876, "excess_performance": 0.07463, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.219915, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038527, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.199697, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.240781, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087136, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.215716, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.248876, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.125521, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1762, "relative_activity": 4.360846, "balance": 2.125521, "dry_up": 3.03304, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052026, "annualized_volatility": 0.371152, "from_high_reference": -0.051118, "from_low_reference": 0.449644 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 152.428652, "fair_value_reference": 154.997504, "structural_low": 128.272858, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.004667, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.006454, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.185906, "worst_return": -0.027281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.055019, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.232285, "worst_return": -0.012648, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.032455, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.070193, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.267195, "worst_return": -0.122593, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011891, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035967, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000132, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057073, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048694, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012076, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052194, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085764, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.087352, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.185906, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 109.575409, "volume": 75, "typical_volume": 103.75, "trend": 96.132148, "fair_value": 78.585371, "relative_strength": 27.570839, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.18846, "energy": 49.694384, "activity_lines": [ 157.860001, 153.06403, 149.669786, 149.83649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 157.949997, "volume": 1077, "typical_volume": 242.55, "trend": 152.836397, "fair_value": 154.167266, "relative_strength": -21.415843, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.115183, "energy": 54.010764, "activity_lines": [ 158.16, 154.784417, 150.548929, 150.112022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 167.850006, "volume": 1568, "typical_volume": 319.7, "trend": 152.455169, "fair_value": 154.53379, "relative_strength": -15.694309, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.560952, "energy": 58.153065, "activity_lines": [ 161.230002, 157.834081, 152.360501, 151.080642 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 185.949997, "volume": 1762, "typical_volume": 404.05, "trend": 152.428652, "fair_value": 154.997504, "relative_strength": -8.713578, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.78429, "energy": 86.895523, "activity_lines": [ 169.760001, 163.622727, 155.807072, 153.241599 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }