{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a37f05a7-21a6-4d7f-8139-fa1ef6346f45", "symbol": "ALGID", "name": "Egide S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 68.063, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -33.885, "architecture_energy": 42.849, "architecture_maturity": 15.877, "architecture_confidence": 61.747, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.63, "rotation_up": 15.81, "upward_expansion": 21.88, "deceleration": 51.91, "rotation_down": 62.88, "downward_expansion": 49.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.979733, 1.0128, 1.041905, 1.032735 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.911, "trend_reference": 1.0105, "distance_from_trend": -0.098466, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.640569, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.422174, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.577913, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.016741, "excess_performance": -0.03657, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.098466, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130735, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.422174, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.388288, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025779, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.516283, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.016741, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.928783, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 173301, "relative_activity": 0.347611, "balance": 0.928783, "dry_up": 0.446949, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109094, "annualized_volatility": 0.390591, "from_high_reference": -0.479429, "from_low_reference": 1.429333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.0105, "fair_value_reference": 0.640569, "structural_low": 0.81, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.034463, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.002943, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.809769, "worst_return": -0.230895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.007881, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039393, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.398936, "worst_return": -0.271774, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.010784, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.03909, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.788321, "worst_return": -0.295968, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.01292, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.10976, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.014339, "worst_return": -0.354839, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.413313, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.162791, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019956, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.123348, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033419, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.180723, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.055081, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096715, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.195565, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", 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1.040267 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.028, "volume": 425512, "typical_volume": 806813.85, "trend": 1.019333, "fair_value": 0.634807, "relative_strength": 25.116982, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.42128, "energy": 12.933859, "activity_lines": [ 1.057333, 1.075382, 1.065181, 1.041746 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.01, "volume": 209552, "typical_volume": 797447.55, "trend": 1.025867, "fair_value": 0.637042, "relative_strength": 21.890053, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.049533, "energy": 8.252307, "activity_lines": [ 1.0396, 1.061745, 1.062195, 1.041144 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.999, "volume": 278821, "typical_volume": 560110.45, "trend": 1.020167, "fair_value": 0.638735, "relative_strength": 19.008019, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.760692, "energy": 11.797998, "activity_lines": [ 1.022333, 1.047745, 1.057467, 1.039411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.024, "volume": 229629, "typical_volume": 519532.05, "trend": 1.0183, "fair_value": 0.640275, "relative_strength": 18.892812, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.68501, "energy": 16.414834, "activity_lines": [ 1.018267, 1.040127, 1.055171, 1.039658 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.911, "volume": 173301, "typical_volume": 498548.85, "trend": 1.0105, "fair_value": 0.640569, "relative_strength": 2.577913, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.885087, "energy": 42.849428, "activity_lines": [ 0.979733, 1.0128, 1.041905, 1.032735 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }