{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a38354f9-550a-4261-a3a7-ad52e9b828a0", "symbol": "AIV", "name": "Apartment Investment and Management Co", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.166, "architecture_energy": 80.094, "architecture_maturity": 15.504, "architecture_confidence": 81.302, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.98, "rotation_up": 8.53, "upward_expansion": 18.31, "deceleration": 37.06, "rotation_down": 79.04, "downward_expansion": 93.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.682667, 2.763818, 2.842659, 2.877345 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.66, "trend_reference": 2.935334, "distance_from_trend": -0.0938, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.933492, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.093231, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.774182, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.15215, "excess_performance": -0.277775, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0938, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021565, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.093231, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104145, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197742, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069377, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.15215, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.758473, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3905625, "relative_activity": 0.588856, "balance": 0.758473, "dry_up": 0.698425, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047012, "annualized_volatility": 0.171228, "from_high_reference": -0.165496, "from_low_reference": 0.027027 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.935334, "fair_value_reference": 2.933492, "structural_low": 2.59, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.016022, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": 0.014453, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.221486, "worst_return": -0.038052, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.058745, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.019525, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.320635, "worst_return": 0.022259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.210657, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.038997, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.240822, "worst_return": 0.049114, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.281854, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.087774, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.318112, "worst_return": 0.245595, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033186, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.118467, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056355, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035632, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033582, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.022259, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077199, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00339, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025253, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", 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"volume": 3611552, "typical_volume": 7087425.6, "trend": 2.95107, "fair_value": 2.935175, "relative_strength": -16.532358, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.221613, "energy": 78.940331, "activity_lines": [ 2.717333, 2.799231, 2.864064, 2.896123 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.66, "volume": 3905625, "typical_volume": 6632562.35, "trend": 2.935334, "fair_value": 2.933492, "relative_strength": -19.774182, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.166494, "energy": 80.093876, "activity_lines": [ 2.682667, 2.763818, 2.842659, 2.877345 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }