{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3880d16-aafa-4d48-86c3-ea0c75bebf15", "symbol": "DDD", "name": "Do Day Dream Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.232, "architecture_energy": 19.54, "architecture_maturity": 36.559, "architecture_confidence": 71.178, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.43, "rotation_up": 35.35, "upward_expansion": 26.59, "deceleration": 50.01, "rotation_down": 20.65, "downward_expansion": 48.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.086667, 5.027091, 5.004862, 5.127659 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5.0, "trend_reference": 5.302131, "distance_from_trend": -0.056983, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.520921, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.335188, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.834402, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.077395, "excess_performance": -0.26972, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056983, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043358, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.335188, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01798, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.238344, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003102, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.077395, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.6674, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 197500, "relative_activity": 1.60094, "balance": 0.6674, "dry_up": 1.272646, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041077, "annualized_volatility": 0.287801, "from_high_reference": -0.276519, "from_low_reference": 0.077586 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.302131, "fair_value_reference": 7.520921, "structural_low": 4.64, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.013158, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.025341, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.047297, "worst_return": -0.092024, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.101106, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.098516, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.174603, "worst_return": -0.153374, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.167939, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.17114, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.081081, "worst_return": -0.203947, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.20363, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015267, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046154, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.161765, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026786, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": 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"activity_lines": [ 4.921333, 4.878727, 5.017179, 5.188173 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.25, "volume": 235300, "typical_volume": 124515.0, "trend": 5.358953, "fair_value": 7.64176, "relative_strength": -23.293205, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.423256, "energy": 22.36212, "activity_lines": [ 5.046, 4.944364, 5.020004, 5.180031 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.1, "volume": 180200, "typical_volume": 129285.0, "trend": 5.336704, "fair_value": 7.601082, "relative_strength": -25.099558, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.191792, "energy": 26.815607, "activity_lines": [ 5.090667, 4.982727, 5.014085, 5.163324 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.1, "volume": 15000, "typical_volume": 122205.0, "trend": 5.316112, "fair_value": 7.561016, "relative_strength": -23.583785, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.00412, "energy": 23.602963, "activity_lines": [ 5.115333, 5.017455, 5.012291, 5.148053 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.0, "volume": 197500, "typical_volume": 123365.0, "trend": 5.302131, "fair_value": 7.520921, "relative_strength": -23.834402, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.232449, "energy": 19.539537, "activity_lines": [ 5.086667, 5.027091, 5.004862, 5.127659 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }