{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a38bb968-d909-49f7-9e9d-905c9dd2df35", "symbol": "USSMC", "name": "UBS MSCI USA Small Cap Selection UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.622, "architecture_energy": 75.303, "architecture_maturity": 54.89, "architecture_confidence": 80.204, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.58, "rotation_up": 66.11, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 55.65, "rotation_down": 27.92, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 194.942001, 193.610001, 188.79343, 184.657742 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 197.389999, "trend_reference": 179.941333, "distance_from_trend": 0.096969, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 165.338137, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.193856, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.146506, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.132213, "excess_performance": -0.038679, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096969, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056479, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.193856, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086073, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011465, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01182, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.132213, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.435075, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60, "relative_activity": 0.091248, "balance": 1.435075, "dry_up": 0.249411, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012552, "annualized_volatility": 0.114314, "from_high_reference": -0.00182, "from_low_reference": 0.327974 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 179.941333, "fair_value_reference": 165.338137, "structural_low": 163.169998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.012274, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011524, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.058959, "worst_return": -0.03762, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.055691, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.074337, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.055691, "worst_return": 0.055691, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 193.399994, "volume": 318, "typical_volume": 815.8, "trend": 177.119999, "fair_value": 164.441717, "relative_strength": 0.300995, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.115997, "energy": 89.93389, "activity_lines": [ 193.031999, 190.422909, 184.86781, 181.394731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 192.350006, "volume": 224, "typical_volume": 824.5, "trend": 178.000666, "fair_value": 164.7208, "relative_strength": -0.097524, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.406395, "energy": 81.836795, "activity_lines": [ 193.041334, 191.296365, 186.026239, 182.377312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 195.020004, "volume": 54, "typical_volume": 711.05, "trend": 179.062666, "fair_value": 165.020792, "relative_strength": 0.610854, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.912035, "energy": 72.527688, "activity_lines": [ 193.637335, 192.372911, 187.360953, 183.475334 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 197.389999, "volume": 60, "typical_volume": 657.55, "trend": 179.941333, "fair_value": 165.338137, "relative_strength": -1.146506, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.621902, "energy": 75.302896, "activity_lines": [ 194.942001, 193.610001, 188.79343, 184.657742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }