{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3942f62-313b-4d20-a9fb-15d7339b31cf", "symbol": "GLD", "name": "KTAM Gold ETF Tracker", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 49.907, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.71, "architecture_energy": 44.043, "architecture_maturity": 60.055, "architecture_confidence": 64.168, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.42, "rotation_up": 26.34, "upward_expansion": 18.88, "deceleration": 66.9, "rotation_down": 43.74, "downward_expansion": 68.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.470667, 5.453091, 5.590381, 5.721312 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.64, "trend_reference": 5.871, "distance_from_trend": -0.039346, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.187628, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.346824, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.897324, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.07541, "excess_performance": -0.267735, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039346, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005366, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.346824, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173584, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118973, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114239, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.07541, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.309295, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12685800, "relative_activity": 1.500256, "balance": 0.309295, "dry_up": 0.970366, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03096, "annualized_volatility": 0.175063, "from_high_reference": -0.18732, "from_low_reference": 0.314685 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.871, "fair_value_reference": 4.187628, "structural_low": 5.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.003914, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.007416, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.038674, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.007843, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.004166, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.007843, "worst_return": 0.007843, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.003922, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.013335, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.003922, "worst_return": 0.003922, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.078431, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.115814, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.078431, "worst_return": 0.078431, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005797, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013624, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024931, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.16622, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034965, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009091, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011601, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142544, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001873, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.072222, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046358, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001825, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038674, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.72, "volume": 473600, "typical_volume": 1878545.0, "trend": 2.704, "fair_value": 2.517821, "relative_strength": 7.785787, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.580473, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 5.32, "volume": 8953700, "typical_volume": 9751570.0, "trend": 5.878, "fair_value": 4.134808, "relative_strength": -18.325347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.029517, "energy": 88.953095, "activity_lines": [ 5.395333, 5.484909, 5.678571, 5.797355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.41, "volume": 6816300, "typical_volume": 8985600.0, "trend": 5.872667, "fair_value": 4.151923, "relative_strength": -17.0723, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.439324, "energy": 61.811836, "activity_lines": [ 5.396, 5.452545, 5.637714, 5.767161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.39, "volume": 4364900, "typical_volume": 8851050.0, "trend": 5.868, "fair_value": 4.169038, "relative_strength": -16.356354, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.60226, "energy": 60.408046, "activity_lines": [ 5.393333, 5.425818, 5.599667, 5.736022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.64, "volume": 12685800, "typical_volume": 8455755.0, "trend": 5.871, "fair_value": 4.187628, "relative_strength": -11.897324, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.709947, "energy": 44.042942, "activity_lines": [ 5.470667, 5.453091, 5.590381, 5.721312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }