{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a39b414d-1013-4a08-8f78-d068485ff69d", "symbol": "9405", "name": "Albilad Gold ETF", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.072, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.048, "architecture_energy": 63.413, "architecture_maturity": 27.465, "architecture_confidence": 88.477, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.0, "rotation_up": 24.33, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 51.05, "rotation_down": 61.09, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.229334, 21.425273, 22.401714, 23.278172 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 21.780001, "trend_reference": 24.27, "distance_from_trend": -0.102596, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.476923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.321849, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.662753, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.310323, "excess_performance": -0.262047, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.102596, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000837, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.321849, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.242447, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026628, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138321, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.310323, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.664028, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 240718, "relative_activity": 0.492522, "balance": 0.664028, "dry_up": 0.463502, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0427, "annualized_volatility": 0.356167, "from_high_reference": -0.334352, "from_low_reference": 0.245283 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.27, "fair_value_reference": 16.476923, "structural_low": 20.700001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.022535, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.020299, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.022535, "worst_return": 0.022535, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.070507, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04664, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.098039, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.202889, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012486, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.370811, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052025, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.110644, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022535, "active": 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1223124.85, "trend": 24.487, "fair_value": 16.066603, "relative_strength": -0.409958, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.306831, "energy": 70.825114, "activity_lines": [ 22.656667, 23.29, 24.141857, 24.536172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 21.139999, "volume": 454565, "typical_volume": 983375.15, "trend": 24.467333, "fair_value": 16.134295, "relative_strength": -3.746287, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.229676, "energy": 89.68632, "activity_lines": [ 22.053333, 22.810182, 23.787524, 24.320236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 21.299999, "volume": 215413, "typical_volume": 946841.8, "trend": 24.447333, "fair_value": 16.204423, "relative_strength": -3.224955, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.088069, "energy": 89.070364, "activity_lines": [ 21.685333, 22.432909, 23.470619, 24.115892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.91, "volume": 293112, "typical_volume": 910731.7, "trend": 24.412667, "fair_value": 16.271667, "relative_strength": -4.575768, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.221139, "energy": 91.684901, "activity_lines": [ 21.352, 22.046727, 23.141524, 23.887677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.940001, "volume": 236180, "typical_volume": 863837.7, "trend": 24.364, "fair_value": 16.338846, "relative_strength": -5.385821, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.533218, "energy": 89.206944, "activity_lines": [ 21.102, 21.726727, 22.840667, 23.663634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.9, "volume": 136129, "typical_volume": 565420.35, "trend": 24.290667, "fair_value": 16.405769, "relative_strength": -3.998838, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.061731, "energy": 86.386488, "activity_lines": [ 20.982, 21.464182, 22.564952, 23.44015 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.780001, "volume": 240718, "typical_volume": 488746.05, "trend": 24.27, "fair_value": 16.476923, "relative_strength": -2.662753, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.047783, "energy": 63.413382, "activity_lines": [ 21.229334, 21.425273, 22.401714, 23.278172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }