{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a39c7810-cade-472a-ac57-66c1a4aa2ccd", "symbol": "ROC", "name": "RocketBoots Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.011, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.434, "architecture_energy": 50.234, "architecture_maturity": 19.294, "architecture_confidence": 67.899, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.36, "rotation_up": 14.5, "upward_expansion": 7.89, "deceleration": 45.02, "rotation_down": 65.38, "downward_expansion": 83.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.243667, 0.252636, 0.271952, 0.280849 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.265, "trend_reference": 0.299833, "distance_from_trend": -0.116176, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.150772, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.757616, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.245426, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.15873, "excess_performance": -0.222436, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116176, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044715, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.757616, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.327398, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.022454, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.393892, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.15873, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.238578, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 971290, "relative_activity": 1.104062, "balance": 6.238578, "dry_up": 0.450565, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.145138, "annualized_volatility": 0.662369, "from_high_reference": -0.459184, "from_low_reference": 1.704082 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.299833, "fair_value_reference": 0.150772, "structural_low": 0.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.09338, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.214286, "median_excess_return": 0.115808, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.625, "worst_return": -0.149425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.137931, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.149559, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.2, "worst_return": 0.093333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.365904, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.330344, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 3.8, "worst_return": -0.03, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.082353, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024096, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.146667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.117021, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.190476, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060606, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.25, "volume": 249251, "typical_volume": 971240.8, "trend": 0.313167, "fair_value": 0.147728, "relative_strength": 4.836493, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.893918, "energy": 67.988573, "activity_lines": [ 0.255333, 0.274909, 0.285762, 0.294398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.22, "volume": 219492, "typical_volume": 911079.95, "trend": 0.308833, "fair_value": 0.148625, "relative_strength": -8.412027, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.236746, "energy": 76.74033, "activity_lines": [ 0.241333, 0.262545, 0.27919, 0.288387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.23, "volume": 145492, "typical_volume": 870492.25, "trend": 0.303, "fair_value": 0.149587, "relative_strength": -7.361115, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.949078, "energy": 74.512201, "activity_lines": [ 0.235333, 0.253636, 0.27381, 0.283301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.265, "volume": 971290, "typical_volume": 879742.3, "trend": 0.299833, "fair_value": 0.150772, "relative_strength": 2.245426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.433671, "energy": 50.234051, "activity_lines": [ 0.243667, 0.252636, 0.271952, 0.280849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }