{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a39ddc6e-b745-4fa5-ba66-a26a7451c6fb", "symbol": "X2M", "name": "X2M Connect Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.538, "architecture_energy": 65.015, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.015, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.28, "rotation_up": 11.68, "upward_expansion": 13.82, "deceleration": 36.76, "rotation_down": 70.93, "downward_expansion": 82.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0035, 0.004127, 0.004288, 0.004535 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.0025, "trend_reference": 0.005233, "distance_from_trend": -0.522293, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.025808, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.903132, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -71.310165, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.642857, "excess_performance": -0.706563, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.522293, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.286364, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.903132, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052103, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.713102, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097096, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.642857, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.531231, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15725100, "relative_activity": 0.860881, "balance": 0.531231, "dry_up": 2.239875, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.476923, "annualized_volatility": 1.322958, "from_high_reference": -0.852941, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.005233, "fair_value_reference": 0.025808, "structural_low": 0.002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.084167, "positive_rate": 0.1, "directional_follow_through": 0.1, "median_excess_return": -0.080679, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.105263, "worst_return": -0.583333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.17, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.192297, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.069767, "worst_return": -0.226667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.466667, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.448667, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.2, "worst_return": -0.55, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.513931, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.569411, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.432624, "worst_return": -0.595238, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-03-31", "end": "2023-05-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-02", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.207884, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.269231, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.097561, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.864865, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.583333, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.046389, "volume": 204321, "typical_volume": 198900.8, "trend": 0.066557, "fair_value": 0.101666, "relative_strength": -36.91038, "stage": 4, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.005, "volume": 50580046, "typical_volume": 18049178.95, "trend": 0.005783, "fair_value": 0.026697, "relative_strength": -44.852208, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.662543, "energy": 12.615643, "activity_lines": [ 0.0052, 0.004973, 0.004688, 0.005005 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.004, "volume": 31728296, "typical_volume": 17189690.55, "trend": 0.005583, "fair_value": 0.026406, "relative_strength": -54.681157, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.866595, "energy": 16.797432, "activity_lines": [ 0.004833, 0.004836, 0.004624, 0.00489 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.003, "volume": 65623336, "typical_volume": 20450971.4, "trend": 0.005417, "fair_value": 0.026109, "relative_strength": -65.561336, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.731948, "energy": 29.637361, "activity_lines": [ 0.0042, 0.004518, 0.004474, 0.004724 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0025, "volume": 15725100, "typical_volume": 18266281.55, "trend": 0.005233, "fair_value": 0.025808, "relative_strength": -71.310165, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.53801, "energy": 65.014921, "activity_lines": [ 0.0035, 0.004127, 0.004288, 0.004535 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }