{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3a2e81b-5383-4cd8-9c62-dc23b0ba5578", "symbol": "XEI", "name": "iShares S&P/TSX Composite High Dividend Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.85, "architecture_energy": 65.684, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.665, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.22, "rotation_up": 61.98, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 63.6, "rotation_down": 22.6, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.182428, 39.893636, 39.209166, 38.381957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 39.57, "trend_reference": 37.117063, "distance_from_trend": 0.066086, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.79626, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.423573, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.112468, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.167371, "excess_performance": 0.046949, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066086, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073305, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.423573, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002127, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.021125, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028827, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.167371, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.529966, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 896300, "relative_activity": 1.05883, "balance": 1.529966, "dry_up": 1.003455, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019155, "annualized_volatility": 0.097728, "from_high_reference": -0.034407, "from_low_reference": 0.386552 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.117063, "fair_value_reference": 27.79626, "structural_low": 33.817675, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.02193, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.001829, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.055972, "worst_return": -0.045454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.030741, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": 0.00911, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.128773, "worst_return": -0.107826, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.095047, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.015129, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.226232, "worst_return": -0.031639, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"direction": 76.896595, "energy": 68.174453, "activity_lines": [ 39.291245, 39.079581, 38.271883, 37.382034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.485943, "volume": 849300, "typical_volume": 877985.0, "trend": 36.307948, "fair_value": 27.438891, "relative_strength": 8.295649, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.758996, "energy": 72.455407, "activity_lines": [ 39.695704, 39.385026, 38.558329, 37.669484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.675411, "volume": 819600, "typical_volume": 856605.0, "trend": 36.586063, "fair_value": 27.56, "relative_strength": 8.271998, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.87911, "energy": 72.047952, "activity_lines": [ 40.096374, 39.668895, 38.839216, 37.951255 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.560001, "volume": 832500, "typical_volume": 845820.0, "trend": 36.868063, "fair_value": 27.68184, "relative_strength": 8.214334, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.488057, "energy": 77.483758, "activity_lines": [ 40.353738, 39.884421, 39.083241, 38.207639 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.57, "volume": 896300, "typical_volume": 846500.0, "trend": 37.117063, "fair_value": 27.79626, "relative_strength": 2.112468, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.849615, "energy": 65.684077, "activity_lines": [ 40.182428, 39.893636, 39.209166, 38.381957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }