{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3a2fd7c-6f29-42ad-8fdb-17c562d81642", "symbol": "1452", "name": "Hong Yi Fiber Ind. Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 79.548, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 27.913, "architecture_energy": 21.369, "architecture_maturity": 9.966, "architecture_confidence": 44.046, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.29, "rotation_up": 46.33, "upward_expansion": 45.64, "deceleration": 43.5, "rotation_down": 24.13, "downward_expansion": 8.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.503333, 11.464462, 11.243836, 11.224707 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.6, "trend_reference": 11.2437, "distance_from_trend": 0.031689, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.615022, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.148, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.814373, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.01432, "excess_performance": -0.427052, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031689, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007608, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.148, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086517, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.298144, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089902, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.01432, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.190047, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 490844, "relative_activity": 0.95292, "balance": 1.190047, "dry_up": 0.775335, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049701, "annualized_volatility": 0.247045, "from_high_reference": -0.179387, "from_low_reference": 0.152861 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.2437, "fair_value_reference": 13.615022, "structural_low": 10.061927, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.005666, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": -0.009845, "regime_survival": 0.526316, "best_return": 0.053879, "worst_return": -0.051125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.001675, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.081532, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.026087, "worst_return": -0.115727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.008592, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.11772, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.027288, "worst_return": -0.272997, "sufficient": 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36.488182, "activity_lines": [ 11.566789, 11.294512, 11.158049, 11.182207 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.4, "volume": 385282, "typical_volume": 501040.5, "trend": 11.245994, "fair_value": 13.664594, "relative_strength": -28.478451, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.377539, "energy": 35.847765, "activity_lines": [ 11.546667, 11.358015, 11.182538, 11.191643 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.4, "volume": 461163, "typical_volume": 505840.8, "trend": 11.241514, "fair_value": 13.638871, "relative_strength": -29.406347, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.068809, "energy": 21.138182, "activity_lines": [ 11.473333, 11.403436, 11.204629, 11.201578 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 11.6, "volume": 490844, "typical_volume": 515094.7, "trend": 11.2437, "fair_value": 13.615022, "relative_strength": -29.814373, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.913467, "energy": 21.369381, "activity_lines": [ 11.503333, 11.464462, 11.243836, 11.224707 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }