{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3a90ea5-c436-424f-bd2d-9eb61de8c758", "symbol": "OZM", "name": "OzAurum Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.951, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.766, "architecture_energy": 21.699, "architecture_maturity": 27.658, "architecture_confidence": 66.823, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.98, "rotation_up": 24.94, "upward_expansion": 14.86, "deceleration": 42.25, "rotation_down": 30.39, "downward_expansion": 62.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0844, 0.083418, 0.086357, 0.088824 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.085, "trend_reference": 0.0904, "distance_from_trend": -0.059735, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.072279, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.176001, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.383548, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.095745, "excess_performance": -0.15945, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.059735, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.108296, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.176001, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.22356, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.033835, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.244047, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.095745, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.926292, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1456765, "relative_activity": 1.448851, "balance": 1.926292, "dry_up": 0.73193, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079638, "annualized_volatility": 0.497821, "from_high_reference": -0.346154, "from_low_reference": 0.734694 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0904, "fair_value_reference": 0.072279, "structural_low": 0.074, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.015625, "positive_rate": 0.392857, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018727, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 2.666667, "worst_return": -0.338462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.054688, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025747, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.384615, "worst_return": -0.363636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.55, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.5839, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.380952, "worst_return": -0.468354, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.265625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.132353, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.309091, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.104762, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.180952, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": 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2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.858394, "energy": 52.150587, "activity_lines": [ 0.081933, 0.083673, 0.08789, 0.089555 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.086, "volume": 625998, "typical_volume": 1370470.4, "trend": 0.0885, "fair_value": 0.071715, "relative_strength": 11.050072, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.161899, "energy": 28.855507, "activity_lines": [ 0.0834, 0.083709, 0.087419, 0.089471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.083, "volume": 442875, "typical_volume": 1217243.45, "trend": 0.089533, "fair_value": 0.07199, "relative_strength": 4.312583, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.138967, "energy": 25.77169, "activity_lines": [ 0.083667, 0.083291, 0.086729, 0.089116 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.085, "volume": 1456765, "typical_volume": 1005462.1, "trend": 0.0904, "fair_value": 0.072279, "relative_strength": 3.383548, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.765787, "energy": 21.698796, "activity_lines": [ 0.0844, 0.083418, 0.086357, 0.088824 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }