{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3a92586-84b1-481f-aee8-a0a9921972c3", "symbol": "QCLR", "name": "GLOBAL X NASDAQ 100 COLLAR 95-110 ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.336, "architecture_energy": 35.887, "architecture_maturity": 44.394, "architecture_confidence": 56.028, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.78, "rotation_up": 16.72, "upward_expansion": 19.56, "deceleration": 66.73, "rotation_down": 64.87, "downward_expansion": 42.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.914193, 28.13367, 28.269389, 28.142133 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 28.24, "trend_reference": 28.085767, "distance_from_trend": 0.005491, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.956715, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.131559, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.362538, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.000517, "excess_performance": -0.18797, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005491, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001691, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.131559, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046583, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123625, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018492, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000517, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.324527, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1632, "relative_activity": 0.154984, "balance": 6.324527, "dry_up": 0.173858, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013126, "annualized_volatility": 0.09885, "from_high_reference": -0.028674, "from_low_reference": 0.082166 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.085767, "fair_value_reference": 24.956715, "structural_low": 26.0958, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.001062, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.008953, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.057263, "worst_return": -0.012772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.061998, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.02002, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0829, "worst_return": 0.051559, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.137128, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.041539, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.163311, "worst_return": 0.110946, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046429, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06413, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015539, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02513, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.048618, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"volume": 316, "typical_volume": 13626.95, "trend": 28.184049, "fair_value": 24.747374, "relative_strength": -12.977002, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.633509, "energy": 34.632163, "activity_lines": [ 28.581661, 28.617561, 28.348721, 28.222241 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.9066, "volume": 1747, "typical_volume": 12214.35, "trend": 28.164617, "fair_value": 24.799942, "relative_strength": -10.909933, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.939787, "energy": 22.373154, "activity_lines": [ 28.344477, 28.487731, 28.335202, 28.204341 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.6107, "volume": 2741, "typical_volume": 11421.45, "trend": 28.12894, "fair_value": 24.848314, "relative_strength": -10.128399, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.14928, "energy": 30.967962, "activity_lines": [ 28.065342, 28.315478, 28.293955, 28.168605 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.5819, "volume": 1203, "typical_volume": 11179.65, "trend": 28.103267, "fair_value": 24.899362, "relative_strength": -10.384978, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.709451, "energy": 45.983436, "activity_lines": [ 27.85734, 28.155018, 28.250862, 28.133312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.24, "volume": 1632, "typical_volume": 10530.15, "trend": 28.085767, "fair_value": 24.956715, "relative_strength": -12.362538, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.33586, "energy": 35.886647, "activity_lines": [ 27.914193, 28.13367, 28.269389, 28.142133 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }