{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3ac33cc-bf3b-416b-b5a4-e9e880e7c9a2", "symbol": "600738", "name": "Lanzhou Lishang Guochao Industrial Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.759, "architecture_energy": 44.125, "architecture_maturity": 96.5, "architecture_confidence": 63.626, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.69, "rotation_up": 26.78, "upward_expansion": 18.74, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 43.54, "downward_expansion": 68.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.842667, 3.833187, 4.021498, 4.242376 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.91, "trend_reference": 4.558568, "distance_from_trend": -0.142274, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.800898, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.185569, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.502261, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.270522, "excess_performance": -0.227319, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.142274, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091869, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.185569, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135569, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.185023, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005694, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.270522, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.546555, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52751081, "relative_activity": 1.333789, "balance": 0.546555, "dry_up": 1.347061, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069253, "annualized_volatility": 0.262868, "from_high_reference": -0.327022, "from_low_reference": 0.092179 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.558568, "fair_value_reference": 4.800898, "structural_low": 3.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.005481, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.022396, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.147388, "worst_return": -0.114823, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.023924, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.034189, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.288, "worst_return": -0.197578, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.013582, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.006558, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.224, "worst_return": -0.093066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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4.834955, "relative_strength": -18.264809, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.293125, "energy": 69.151927, "activity_lines": [ 3.8, 3.902911, 4.164646, 4.402809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.61, "volume": 55624160, "typical_volume": 39031366.95, "trend": 4.646235, "fair_value": 4.825081, "relative_strength": -23.496639, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.364464, "energy": 68.390887, "activity_lines": [ 3.738, 3.82949, 4.090089, 4.331826 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.95, "volume": 50436251, "typical_volume": 39080295.65, "trend": 4.600235, "fair_value": 4.812643, "relative_strength": -16.022648, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.835704, "energy": 55.802555, "activity_lines": [ 3.806667, 3.832227, 4.055055, 4.286908 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.91, "volume": 52751081, "typical_volume": 39549807.05, "trend": 4.558568, "fair_value": 4.800898, "relative_strength": -18.502261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.759452, "energy": 44.124544, "activity_lines": [ 3.842667, 3.833187, 4.021498, 4.242376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }