{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3ad0cb7-6d4c-4809-8027-83530380a45b", "symbol": "UPV", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST ULTRA FTSE EUROPE", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.035, "architecture_energy": 72.632, "architecture_maturity": 19.421, "architecture_confidence": 80.841, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.43, "rotation_up": 69.59, "upward_expansion": 88.43, "deceleration": 45.55, "rotation_down": 13.53, "downward_expansion": 15.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 102.468133, 100.672043, 98.581491, 96.922843 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 107.1469, "trend_reference": 95.858026, "distance_from_trend": 0.117767, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 70.165917, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.527051, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.608015, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.076031, "excess_performance": -0.049594, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.117767, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047172, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.527051, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073107, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.05608, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04548, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.076031, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.877812, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1869, "relative_activity": 0.315536, "balance": 0.877812, "dry_up": 0.412738, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04302, "annualized_volatility": 0.368898, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.407674 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 95.858026, "fair_value_reference": 70.165917, "structural_low": 79.139563, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.023964, "positive_rate": 0.677419, "directional_follow_through": 0.677419, "median_excess_return": 0.009952, "regime_survival": 0.677419, "best_return": 0.121488, "worst_return": -0.148777, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.029183, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.036881, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.181935, "worst_return": -0.256087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.001449, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.073281, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.216428, "worst_return": -0.103927, "sufficient": true }, { 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48.6516, "activity_lines": [ 98.229326, 97.258948, 95.290178, 94.888221 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 98.6655, "volume": 1631, "typical_volume": 8631.8, "trend": 94.447676, "fair_value": 68.923178, "relative_strength": 0.327743, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.031402, "energy": 43.808566, "activity_lines": [ 98.624746, 97.65949, 95.724659, 95.187118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 98.656, "volume": 2291, "typical_volume": 8057.0, "trend": 94.802085, "fair_value": 69.204255, "relative_strength": 1.758303, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.241838, "energy": 37.550207, "activity_lines": [ 98.673254, 97.986471, 96.177976, 95.458623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 98.0168, "volume": 1556, "typical_volume": 7385.35, "trend": 95.057516, "fair_value": 69.48079, "relative_strength": 1.613468, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.21546, "energy": 40.569362, "activity_lines": [ 98.523133, 98.156194, 96.591655, 95.666024 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 102.8149, "volume": 4063, "typical_volume": 6570.45, "trend": 95.423583, "fair_value": 69.809744, "relative_strength": 5.137775, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.194611, "energy": 50.177252, "activity_lines": [ 100.003573, 99.074483, 97.422534, 96.1665 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 107.1469, "volume": 1869, "typical_volume": 5923.25, "trend": 95.858026, "fair_value": 70.165917, "relative_strength": 5.608015, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.035138, "energy": 72.632087, "activity_lines": [ 102.468133, 100.672043, 98.581491, 96.922843 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }