{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3ade6b0-6562-4704-96e3-f15afe9fcaa9", "symbol": "ALMLB", "name": "Miliboo Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 65.63, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.416, "architecture_energy": 19.781, "architecture_maturity": 11.037, "architecture_confidence": 75.321, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.29, "rotation_up": 16.48, "upward_expansion": 9.89, "deceleration": 51.28, "rotation_down": 46.4, "downward_expansion": 66.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.666667, 1.689636, 1.683905, 1.695699 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.66, "trend_reference": 1.7255, "distance_from_trend": -0.03796, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.694392, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.020298, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.409145, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.112299, "excess_performance": -0.165611, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03796, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027593, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.020298, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036288, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084091, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094145, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.112299, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.285665, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8033, "relative_activity": 1.239804, "balance": 1.285665, "dry_up": 1.593742, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097312, "annualized_volatility": 0.367889, "from_high_reference": -0.245455, "from_low_reference": 0.152778 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.7255, "fair_value_reference": 1.694392, "structural_low": 1.47, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.005814, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.034866, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.222222, "worst_return": -0.188679, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.06639, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.093898, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.248387, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.026371, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.05059, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.152648, "worst_return": -0.246305, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.235, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.246558, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.195286, "worst_return": -0.303226, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.151515, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.162393, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.347222, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135279, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126506, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003175, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021807, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005208, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002801, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059524, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.163399, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010929, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081395, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057325, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.19, "volume": 1913, "typical_volume": 5331.25, "trend": 2.3565, "fair_value": 4.018718, "relative_strength": -13.467071, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.543752, 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"relative_strength": -9.369458, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.399158, "energy": 25.339289, "activity_lines": [ 1.657333, 1.690364, 1.683452, 1.703656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.66, "volume": 2462, "typical_volume": 5870.7, "trend": 1.7305, "fair_value": 1.699456, "relative_strength": -4.774761, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.384353, "energy": 28.990113, "activity_lines": [ 1.640667, 1.686545, 1.680643, 1.699226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.75, "volume": 28007, "typical_volume": 6949.0, "trend": 1.734167, "fair_value": 1.697149, "relative_strength": -1.367412, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.401416, "energy": 19.9769, "activity_lines": [ 1.665333, 1.697818, 1.6865, 1.700484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.66, "volume": 8033, "typical_volume": 6479.25, "trend": 1.7255, "fair_value": 1.694392, "relative_strength": -8.409145, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.415814, "energy": 19.780988, "activity_lines": [ 1.666667, 1.689636, 1.683905, 1.695699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }