{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3b2e3ee-d3eb-418a-a8f8-20632b54cac0", "symbol": "IOPP", "name": "SIMPLIFY EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS TARA INDIA OPPORTUNITIES ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.392, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.326, "architecture_energy": 67.018, "architecture_maturity": 15.092, "architecture_confidence": 72.651, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.88, "rotation_up": 67.21, "upward_expansion": 86.69, "deceleration": 47.78, "rotation_down": 14.49, "downward_expansion": 13.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.555153, 26.292077, 25.831827, 25.581029 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.115, "trend_reference": 25.492536, "distance_from_trend": 0.063645, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.102007, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.038809, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.001661, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.021567, "excess_performance": -0.104058, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063645, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011259, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.038809, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054678, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.080017, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059661, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.021567, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.31576, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3324, "relative_activity": 0.285944, "balance": 2.31576, "dry_up": 1.803001, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027722, "annualized_volatility": 0.203505, "from_high_reference": -0.043216, "from_low_reference": 0.194757 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.492536, "fair_value_reference": 26.102007, "structural_low": 22.695, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.023196, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.001057, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.023196, "worst_return": 0.023196, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011215, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049579, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.02713, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009414, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": 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25.425154, 25.381583 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.8004, "volume": 6377, "typical_volume": 10477.65, "trend": 25.497002, "fair_value": 26.089198, "relative_strength": -9.075957, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.210659, "energy": 45.184204, "activity_lines": [ 26.056273, 25.864344, 25.497514, 25.398627 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.6902, "volume": 39849, "typical_volume": 12003.0, "trend": 25.480975, "fair_value": 26.093967, "relative_strength": -6.588096, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.430957, "energy": 48.07892, "activity_lines": [ 26.262067, 26.056558, 25.651004, 25.475608 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.115, "volume": 3324, "typical_volume": 11624.65, "trend": 25.492536, "fair_value": 26.102007, "relative_strength": -8.001661, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.326365, "energy": 67.017945, "activity_lines": [ 26.555153, 26.292077, 25.831827, 25.581029 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }