{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3b4c592-9cc6-448b-8343-c4f68214c328", "symbol": "FSIG", "name": "FIRST TR EXCHANGE TRADED FD IV LIMITED DURATION INV GRADE CORP ETF USD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 88.482, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.764, "architecture_energy": 14.782, "architecture_maturity": 36.548, "architecture_confidence": 89.225, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.83, "rotation_up": 22.81, "upward_expansion": 7.73, "deceleration": 48.54, "rotation_down": 39.81, "downward_expansion": 69.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.798817, 18.798941, 18.807416, 18.814089 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.85, "trend_reference": 18.829088, "distance_from_trend": 0.001111, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.809168, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.058444, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.562346, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.002598, "excess_performance": -0.128223, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001111, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000835, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.058444, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012462, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105623, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004211, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002598, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.682672, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1021558, "relative_activity": 0.534035, "balance": 0.682672, "dry_up": 0.787859, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004955, "annualized_volatility": 0.0273, "from_high_reference": -0.006358, "from_low_reference": 0.02444 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.829088, "fair_value_reference": 17.809168, "structural_low": 18.651742, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.004393, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.024079, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.020382, "worst_return": -0.010489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.014071, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.08167, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.035373, "worst_return": -0.007231, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.037453, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.15315, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.037453, "worst_return": 0.037453, "sufficient": false }, 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011448, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.035898, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.011044, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.054886, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009166, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-08-07", 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"relative_strength": -7.530023, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.734763, "energy": 35.653382, "activity_lines": [ 18.784942, 18.796465, 18.806162, 18.81657 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.77, "volume": 1480201, "typical_volume": 1972798.9, "trend": 18.828346, "fair_value": 17.792627, "relative_strength": -8.128279, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.666764, "energy": 38.156573, "activity_lines": [ 18.776304, 18.790358, 18.802996, 18.812692 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.85, "volume": 1021558, "typical_volume": 1912903.4, "trend": 18.829088, "fair_value": 17.809168, "relative_strength": -10.562346, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.764372, "energy": 14.782241, "activity_lines": [ 18.798817, 18.798941, 18.807416, 18.814089 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }