{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3c2d144-4667-4358-a4f5-7b0fa3e832cc", "symbol": "GBSE", "name": "WisdomTree Physical Gold - EUR Daily Hedged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.49, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.7, "architecture_energy": 49.397, "architecture_maturity": 62.482, "architecture_confidence": 69.205, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.1, "rotation_up": 26.48, "upward_expansion": 19.96, "deceleration": 66.67, "rotation_down": 48.98, "downward_expansion": 72.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.709334, 21.654182, 22.418048, 23.187484 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.745001, "trend_reference": 24.1725, "distance_from_trend": -0.059055, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.982275, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.339338, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.127117, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.129878, "excess_performance": -0.300769, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.059055, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012326, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.339338, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205773, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.151271, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151599, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.129878, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.499856, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 255234, "relative_activity": 1.296355, "balance": 0.499856, "dry_up": 0.912585, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038859, "annualized_volatility": 0.233915, "from_high_reference": -0.227674, "from_low_reference": 0.273516 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.1725, "fair_value_reference": 16.982275, "structural_low": 20.73, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.001366, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000803, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.064587, "worst_return": -0.052336, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.03629, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.027163, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.158685, "worst_return": -0.060294, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.102041, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.064649, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.109949, "worst_return": 0.088824, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.06218, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033987, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.11501, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040186, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.181014, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", 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24.427833, "fair_value": 16.712896, "relative_strength": -18.651069, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.079403, "energy": 88.23735, "activity_lines": [ 21.631667, 22.210636, 23.216714, 23.902742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.995001, "volume": 179860, "typical_volume": 246800.45, "trend": 24.356, "fair_value": 16.776095, "relative_strength": -19.173203, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.94816, "energy": 88.872292, "activity_lines": [ 21.390334, 21.884, 22.920214, 23.681269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.32, "volume": 108113, "typical_volume": 218606.65, "trend": 24.274667, "fair_value": 16.8413, "relative_strength": -17.703167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.148978, "energy": 73.154476, "activity_lines": [ 21.334334, 21.685636, 22.686476, 23.485398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.125, "volume": 175493, "typical_volume": 216212.3, "trend": 24.213, "fair_value": 16.906153, "relative_strength": -18.888859, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.151517, "energy": 65.88905, "activity_lines": [ 21.242667, 21.498818, 22.462024, 23.282194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.745001, "volume": 255234, "typical_volume": 196885.85, "trend": 24.1725, "fair_value": 16.982275, "relative_strength": -15.127117, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.700415, "energy": 49.397471, "activity_lines": [ 21.709334, 21.654182, 22.418048, 23.187484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }