{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3c2f60e-dc96-4219-a5e4-61a39aa9231b", "symbol": "CPA", "name": "Copa Holdings SA", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.589, "architecture_energy": 22.744, "architecture_maturity": 60.717, "architecture_confidence": 87.493, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.69, "rotation_up": 23.09, "upward_expansion": 55.12, "deceleration": 90.87, "rotation_down": 31.41, "downward_expansion": 18.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 140.873333, 144.03, 139.86605, 135.543991 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 142.13, "trend_reference": 132.430096, "distance_from_trend": 0.073245, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 99.536752, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.427915, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.848963, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.055063, "excess_performance": -0.180688, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073245, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068861, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.427915, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.155906, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.00849, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076207, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.055063, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.134681, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1716520, "relative_activity": 0.924352, "balance": 2.134681, "dry_up": 0.837045, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085952, "annualized_volatility": 0.387253, "from_high_reference": -0.114262, "from_low_reference": 0.338709 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 132.430096, "fair_value_reference": 99.536752, "structural_low": 106.169444, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.037114, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.015813, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.195638, "worst_return": -0.020284, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.167586, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.131048, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.402528, "worst_return": 0.0041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.009383, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.061206, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.218043, "worst_return": -0.055873, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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134.228482, 131.893649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 150.59, "volume": 1403461, "typical_volume": 2066464.5, "trend": 130.022917, "fair_value": 98.361801, "relative_strength": 10.221287, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.603711, "energy": 72.366268, "activity_lines": [ 151.926, 146.763856, 136.292861, 133.292565 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 139.07, "volume": 1457711, "typical_volume": 2068543.45, "trend": 130.620001, "fair_value": 98.613902, "relative_strength": 3.149577, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.486066, "energy": 46.961957, "activity_lines": [ 148.072, 146.294219, 137.204587, 133.876248 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 136.28, "volume": 1323818, "typical_volume": 1999282.35, "trend": 131.208357, "fair_value": 98.843951, "relative_strength": 1.478755, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.536073, "energy": 28.614876, "activity_lines": [ 143.462667, 144.995089, 137.840603, 134.241409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 141.22, "volume": 1719516, "typical_volume": 1903302.95, "trend": 131.951618, "fair_value": 99.154316, "relative_strength": 3.790324, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.226815, "energy": 21.137135, "activity_lines": [ 141.484, 144.482909, 138.88653, 134.887321 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 142.13, "volume": 1716520, "typical_volume": 1856998.35, "trend": 132.430096, "fair_value": 99.536752, "relative_strength": 0.848963, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.589411, "energy": 22.743701, "activity_lines": [ 140.873333, 144.03, 139.86605, 135.543991 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }