{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3c565c9-3ec5-4f92-a61a-0b2b9b6ca6d3", "symbol": "601609", "name": "Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.773, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.991, "architecture_energy": 49.965, "architecture_maturity": 6.388, "architecture_confidence": 65.151, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.05, "rotation_up": 7.4, "upward_expansion": 15.56, "deceleration": 46.59, "rotation_down": 67.0, "downward_expansion": 76.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.994, 10.462364, 10.991665, 10.987347 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.45, "trend_reference": 11.056388, "distance_from_trend": -0.054845, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.772061, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.34456, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.497781, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.122586, "excess_performance": -0.079382, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.054845, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010141, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.34456, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051753, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.054978, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001992, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.122586, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.311749, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 124793903, "relative_activity": 0.592589, "balance": 2.311749, "dry_up": 0.719374, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141765, "annualized_volatility": 0.603819, "from_high_reference": -0.291525, "from_low_reference": 0.373193 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.056388, "fair_value_reference": 7.772061, "structural_low": 9.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.010796, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.000402, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.217949, "worst_return": -0.116375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.023563, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.05442, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.257944, "worst_return": -0.153367, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.007932, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.016542, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.218504, "worst_return": -0.153367, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.957372, "energy": 28.372466, "activity_lines": [ 10.583333, 11.343244, 11.295974, 11.214905 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.48, "volume": 154337624, "typical_volume": 211176148.2, "trend": 11.099721, "fair_value": 7.724979, "relative_strength": -10.995862, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.268682, "energy": 41.334214, "activity_lines": [ 10.070667, 10.904596, 11.145919, 11.108493 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.84, "volume": 136348505, "typical_volume": 210263182.05, "trend": 11.068055, "fair_value": 7.746627, "relative_strength": -8.2198, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.895934, "energy": 54.032022, "activity_lines": [ 9.912667, 10.592786, 11.038102, 11.027221 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.45, "volume": 124793903, "typical_volume": 210591019.25, "trend": 11.056388, "fair_value": 7.772061, "relative_strength": -5.497781, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.990745, "energy": 49.965243, "activity_lines": [ 9.994, 10.462364, 10.991665, 10.987347 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }