{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3c56fc9-ea51-4659-8a66-4cdd09532e35", "symbol": "5271", "name": "Horng Tong Enterprise Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.632, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -47.025, "architecture_energy": 68.184, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.945, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.44, "rotation_up": 19.63, "upward_expansion": 23.93, "deceleration": 43.1, "rotation_down": 72.53, "downward_expansion": 67.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.063333, 12.248182, 14.855714, 15.576667 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 10.05, "trend_reference": 15.165, "distance_from_trend": -0.33729, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.425481, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.191178, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.626124, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.116667, "excess_performance": -0.324705, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.33729, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078336, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.191178, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.983261, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.446261, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.61572, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.116667, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.287229, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1330098, "relative_activity": 0.135948, "balance": 0.287229, "dry_up": 0.177244, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.298354, "annualized_volatility": 1.15638, "from_high_reference": -0.817273, "from_low_reference": 0.259398 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.165, "fair_value_reference": 12.425481, "structural_low": 8.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.019085, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.074401, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.239819, "worst_return": -0.119048, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.004975, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.083978, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.013575, "worst_return": -0.213033, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.085973, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.30686, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.832504, "worst_return": -0.488722, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069401, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.121495, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.18552, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.218978, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.086538, 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"fair_value": 12.387126, "relative_strength": -25.989127, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.459747, "energy": 12.448362, "activity_lines": [ 14.93, 16.006364, 17.891191, 16.753549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.1, "volume": 2153046, "typical_volume": 12584451.65, "trend": 14.926667, "fair_value": 12.398237, "relative_strength": -31.864335, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.964183, "energy": 33.796432, "activity_lines": [ 13.923333, 15.081818, 17.363333, 16.575592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.4, "volume": 2131925, "typical_volume": 12561422.1, "trend": 14.993333, "fair_value": 12.406678, "relative_strength": -36.449438, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.481057, "energy": 54.663499, "activity_lines": [ 12.876667, 14.175454, 16.752143, 16.348065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.0, "volume": 1956425, "typical_volume": 12094944.5, "trend": 15.076667, "fair_value": 12.418216, "relative_strength": -31.478787, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.304399, "energy": 53.194527, "activity_lines": [ 12.356667, 13.565454, 16.189048, 16.154946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.2, "volume": 1518097, "typical_volume": 10262655.5, "trend": 15.136667, "fair_value": 12.425695, "relative_strength": -36.872803, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.549635, "energy": 61.795313, "activity_lines": [ 11.77, 12.95, 15.560714, 15.904839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 10.05, "volume": 1330098, "typical_volume": 9783882.7, "trend": 15.165, "fair_value": 12.425481, "relative_strength": -44.626124, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.024867, "energy": 68.18438, "activity_lines": [ 11.063333, 12.248182, 14.855714, 15.576667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }