{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3cab895-7035-4e39-a0b6-3d3c7a5761a2", "symbol": "VERX", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Developed Europe ex UK UCITS ETF Distributing", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.84, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.131, "architecture_energy": 53.25, "architecture_maturity": 29.594, "architecture_confidence": 81.377, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.4, "rotation_up": 53.17, "upward_expansion": 78.56, "deceleration": 58.73, "rotation_down": 24.08, "downward_expansion": 7.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.098334, 42.946172, 42.369843, 41.895395 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 43.985001, "trend_reference": 41.473083, "distance_from_trend": 0.060567, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.937879, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.258949, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.054198, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.06335, "excess_performance": 0.012115, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060567, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027782, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.258949, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057484, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.010542, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017634, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.06335, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.855167, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 338428, "relative_activity": 0.64896, "balance": 1.855167, "dry_up": 0.809028, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021113, "annualized_volatility": 0.170608, "from_high_reference": -0.011726, "from_low_reference": 0.217251 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.473083, "fair_value_reference": 34.937879, "structural_low": 37.085499, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.004622, "positive_rate": 0.638889, "directional_follow_through": 0.638889, "median_excess_return": -0.000836, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 0.086085, "worst_return": -0.108479, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.004626, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.002275, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.11804, "worst_return": -0.071963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.048024, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.005553, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.127116, "worst_return": -0.136892, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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548974.9, "trend": 41.373268, "fair_value": 34.841887, "relative_strength": -1.047748, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.632083, "energy": 37.790011, "activity_lines": [ 42.696, 42.686468, 42.128907, 41.726897 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.985001, "volume": 338428, "typical_volume": 521493.1, "trend": 41.473083, "fair_value": 34.937879, "relative_strength": 1.054198, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.131453, "energy": 53.249714, "activity_lines": [ 43.098334, 42.946172, 42.369843, 41.895395 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }