{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3cc521a-e6a9-40d9-b709-5284b0361ab4", "symbol": "300848", "name": "Miracll Chemicals Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.544, "architecture_energy": 76.882, "architecture_maturity": 23.475, "architecture_confidence": 92.859, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.49, "rotation_up": 13.06, "upward_expansion": 18.42, "deceleration": 37.87, "rotation_down": 69.69, "downward_expansion": 91.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.680667, 13.080364, 14.025428, 14.594537 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.12, "trend_reference": 15.31696, "distance_from_trend": -0.143433, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.736871, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.166289, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.685169, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.271334, "excess_performance": -0.278734, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.143433, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039317, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.166289, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227771, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.186852, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017201, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.271334, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.551219, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19049885, "relative_activity": 0.785109, "balance": 0.551219, "dry_up": 0.759407, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080646, "annualized_volatility": 0.426281, "from_high_reference": -0.399648, "from_low_reference": 0.149869 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.31696, "fair_value_reference": 15.736871, "structural_low": 11.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.045631, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.018566, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.303209, "worst_return": -0.296788, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.010509, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016253, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.473755, "worst_return": -0.271211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.136148, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.142688, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.257505, "worst_return": -0.298395, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"energy": 79.520405, "activity_lines": [ 13.157333, 13.776347, 14.66417, 15.134601 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.26, "volume": 21525611, "typical_volume": 25462602.15, "trend": 15.474879, "fair_value": 15.790435, "relative_strength": -22.712656, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.518012, "energy": 81.865131, "activity_lines": [ 12.706667, 13.390364, 14.390132, 14.922295 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.68, "volume": 14216269, "typical_volume": 24575126.5, "trend": 15.405369, "fair_value": 15.761219, "relative_strength": -18.030438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.777777, "energy": 82.739809, "activity_lines": [ 12.570667, 13.163818, 14.177518, 14.74198 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.12, "volume": 19049885, "typical_volume": 24263987.5, "trend": 15.31696, "fair_value": 15.736871, "relative_strength": -18.685169, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.54444, "energy": 76.881925, "activity_lines": [ 12.680667, 13.080364, 14.025428, 14.594537 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }