{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3cce70d-31a9-4546-8daf-ee4e1f7331bc", "symbol": "HXE", "name": "Global X S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index Corporate Class ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.09, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.613, "architecture_energy": 50.453, "architecture_maturity": 6.384, "architecture_confidence": 73.952, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.22, "rotation_up": 67.3, "upward_expansion": 78.0, "deceleration": 55.41, "rotation_down": 11.49, "downward_expansion": 9.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.287334, 57.666182, 57.593238, 56.976237 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 58.130001, "trend_reference": 55.109667, "distance_from_trend": 0.054806, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.836603, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.459211, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.842045, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.215854, "excess_performance": 0.095433, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054806, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103039, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.459211, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078006, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.06842, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118608, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.215854, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.005764, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5400, "relative_activity": 0.290557, "balance": 2.005764, "dry_up": 0.477536, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050351, "annualized_volatility": 0.301621, "from_high_reference": -0.077594, "from_low_reference": 0.608467 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.109667, "fair_value_reference": 39.836603, "structural_low": 47.799999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.043005, "positive_rate": 0.580645, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": 0.018438, "regime_survival": 0.741935, "best_return": 0.170242, "worst_return": -0.176471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.079749, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.073869, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.31934, "worst_return": -0.090571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.244811, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.084191, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.320872, "worst_return": -0.112903, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083649, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.09868, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034733, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001089, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041552, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", 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3.188166, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.493421, "energy": 12.30395, "activity_lines": [ 55.285333, 57.002182, 57.033381, 55.140989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 53.34, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 23185.0, "trend": 52.192667, "fair_value": 38.941987, "relative_strength": 3.19239, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.63099, "energy": 19.955917, "activity_lines": [ 54.342, 56.210909, 56.76419, 55.236753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 55.540001, "volume": 8100, "typical_volume": 23295.0, "trend": 52.647333, "fair_value": 39.112372, "relative_strength": 7.0004, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.122515, "energy": 21.355648, "activity_lines": [ 54.386, 55.863455, 56.686143, 55.45271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 57.48, "volume": 8700, "typical_volume": 23320.0, "trend": 53.215, "fair_value": 39.289551, "relative_strength": 10.452078, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.11806, "energy": 17.107161, "activity_lines": [ 55.282, 55.944182, 56.771238, 55.764495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 61.0, "volume": 5500, "typical_volume": 21545.0, "trend": 53.881667, "fair_value": 39.481218, "relative_strength": 16.306271, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.689569, "energy": 28.703793, "activity_lines": [ 57.402667, 56.667091, 57.162048, 56.266753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.290001, "volume": 15900, "typical_volume": 21025.0, "trend": 54.541333, "fair_value": 39.671795, "relative_strength": 16.757914, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.440866, "energy": 49.228391, "activity_lines": [ 59.154, 57.451637, 57.542476, 56.74471 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.130001, "volume": 5400, "typical_volume": 18585.0, "trend": 55.109667, "fair_value": 39.836603, "relative_strength": 6.842045, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.612613, "energy": 50.453134, "activity_lines": [ 59.287334, 57.666182, 57.593238, 56.976237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }