{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3cfc7c3-2dcc-4c90-98e0-ecafb980659f", "symbol": "YJUN", "name": "FT VEST INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MODERATE BUFFER ETF - JUNE", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.858, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.513, "architecture_energy": 64.879, "architecture_maturity": 35.332, "architecture_confidence": 67.796, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.02, "rotation_up": 65.97, "upward_expansion": 84.1, "deceleration": 52.06, "rotation_down": 18.1, "downward_expansion": 10.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.157387, 27.028956, 26.876313, 26.674811 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.55, "trend_reference": 26.448367, "distance_from_trend": 0.041652, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.335711, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.180594, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.24976, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.05233, "excess_performance": -0.073295, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041652, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019995, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.180594, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011805, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052498, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011137, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.05233, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.808903, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 54484, "relative_activity": 0.407264, "balance": 0.808903, "dry_up": 0.618406, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012375, "annualized_volatility": 0.06562, "from_high_reference": -0.001088, "from_low_reference": 0.122657 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.448367, "fair_value_reference": 23.335711, "structural_low": 25.2671, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.008091, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.005072, "regime_survival": 0.787879, "best_return": 0.069183, "worst_return": -0.02504, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.020964, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.031499, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.074313, "worst_return": -0.047329, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.04735, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.079661, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.107015, "worst_return": -0.024302, "sufficient": 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51.089511, "activity_lines": [ 26.870653, 26.828265, 26.594396, 26.436366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.9, "volume": 98967, "typical_volume": 147155.4, "trend": 26.26735, "fair_value": 23.170482, "relative_strength": -5.843232, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.415198, "energy": 46.411324, "activity_lines": [ 26.881333, 26.852538, 26.643589, 26.480336 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.8037, "volume": 167944, "typical_volume": 148927.45, "trend": 26.309673, "fair_value": 23.209193, "relative_strength": -4.55256, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.57758, "energy": 38.1811, "activity_lines": [ 26.852567, 26.851847, 26.680707, 26.514939 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.8194, "volume": 67324, "typical_volume": 144514.2, "trend": 26.347653, "fair_value": 23.24701, "relative_strength": -3.794869, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.378976, "energy": 33.794026, "activity_lines": [ 26.837453, 26.851125, 26.717397, 26.547825 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.1613, "volume": 41171, "typical_volume": 141005.55, "trend": 26.395367, "fair_value": 23.290134, "relative_strength": -3.477487, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.251474, "energy": 45.148341, "activity_lines": [ 26.948347, 26.908396, 26.781991, 26.600318 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.55, "volume": 54484, "typical_volume": 133780.7, "trend": 26.448367, "fair_value": 23.335711, "relative_strength": -5.24976, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.513093, "energy": 64.878606, "activity_lines": [ 27.157387, 27.028956, 26.876313, 26.674811 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }