{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3d30aab-265a-49e4-8977-9b05b4ad08db", "symbol": "CGRA3", "name": "Grazziotin S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.271, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.245, "architecture_energy": 30.27, "architecture_maturity": 16.556, "architecture_confidence": 70.872, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.92, "rotation_up": 17.41, "upward_expansion": 13.32, "deceleration": 48.87, "rotation_down": 52.04, "downward_expansion": 65.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.441333, 24.593455, 24.53672, 24.701735 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 24.18, "trend_reference": 24.977972, "distance_from_trend": -0.031947, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.564568, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.302481, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.399101, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.047812, "excess_performance": 0.009236, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031947, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021418, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.302481, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059813, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003991, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061318, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.047812, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.586066, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6500, "relative_activity": 1.442377, "balance": 0.586066, "dry_up": 0.832141, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024935, "annualized_volatility": 0.128883, "from_high_reference": -0.132249, "from_low_reference": 0.373202 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.977972, "fair_value_reference": 18.564568, "structural_low": 23.531406, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.00515, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.011767, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.33805, "worst_return": -0.085461, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.049061, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.046158, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.330245, "worst_return": -0.169275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.052009, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.047626, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.151754, "worst_return": -0.128519, 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"fair_value": 18.437596, "relative_strength": -0.669477, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.402525, "energy": 12.918985, "activity_lines": [ 24.684, 24.671834, 24.586409, 24.787475 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.6, "volume": 1600, "typical_volume": 4681.45, "trend": 25.020978, "fair_value": 18.500607, "relative_strength": -1.786176, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.18305, "energy": 14.557914, "activity_lines": [ 24.620667, 24.68054, 24.577456, 24.755991 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.18, "volume": 6500, "typical_volume": 4506.45, "trend": 24.977972, "fair_value": 18.564568, "relative_strength": -0.399101, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.245027, "energy": 30.270482, "activity_lines": [ 24.441333, 24.593455, 24.53672, 24.701735 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }