{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3de8b02-0d44-413e-8f70-1d3dbb01da76", "symbol": "9617", "name": "Arabica Star Co.", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.176, "architecture_energy": 84.741, "architecture_maturity": 44.272, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.77, "rotation_up": 23.78, "upward_expansion": 20.73, "deceleration": 37.73, "rotation_down": 64.33, "downward_expansion": 96.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.037333, 26.851636, 29.024381, 31.141548 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.1, "trend_reference": 33.462667, "distance_from_trend": -0.24991, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 48.323977, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.480589, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.335427, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.282857, "excess_performance": -0.251028, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.24991, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059368, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.480589, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.194322, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.293354, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157823, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.282857, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.18216, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24930, "relative_activity": 1.260288, "balance": 0.18216, "dry_up": 0.387906, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089917, "annualized_volatility": 0.453436, "from_high_reference": -0.505906, "from_low_reference": 0.027846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.462667, "fair_value_reference": 48.323977, "structural_low": 24.42, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.078813, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.069354, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.054054, "worst_return": -0.103571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.152027, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-06", "close": 83.199997, "volume": 23152, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-13", "close": 81.400002, "volume": 243864, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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"trend": 34.369333, "fair_value": 49.379643, "relative_strength": -25.006042, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.971171, "energy": 71.062351, "activity_lines": [ 27.994667, 28.652727, 31.689524, 33.179613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.5, "volume": 2303, "typical_volume": 23221.15, "trend": 34.176667, "fair_value": 49.122235, "relative_strength": -24.828446, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.897082, "energy": 75.069655, "activity_lines": [ 27.764, 28.254909, 31.082095, 32.73643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.02, "volume": 758, "typical_volume": 22036.65, "trend": 33.948667, "fair_value": 48.853605, "relative_strength": -28.393245, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.245196, "energy": 77.05346, "activity_lines": [ 27.18, 27.760727, 30.379333, 32.210194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.0, "volume": 2702, "typical_volume": 19253.95, "trend": 33.715333, "fair_value": 48.59092, "relative_strength": -26.000788, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.466001, "energy": 83.671052, "activity_lines": [ 26.705333, 27.365455, 29.720857, 31.697376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.1, "volume": 24930, "typical_volume": 19781.2, "trend": 33.462667, "fair_value": 48.323977, "relative_strength": -29.335427, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.176224, "energy": 84.740996, "activity_lines": [ 26.037333, 26.851636, 29.024381, 31.141548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }