{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3deda24-ab76-48d4-bbe6-44b3d4afba5d", "symbol": "GEN", "name": "General Capital Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.76, "architecture_energy": 60.064, "architecture_maturity": 8.513, "architecture_confidence": 73.492, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.54, "rotation_up": 17.16, "upward_expansion": 17.42, "deceleration": 33.02, "rotation_down": 69.07, "downward_expansion": 81.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.26, 0.266302, 0.267545, 0.271385 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.255, "trend_reference": 0.277599, "distance_from_trend": -0.081409, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.279824, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.088713, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.617867, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.15, "excess_performance": -0.178274, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081409, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034116, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.088713, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01664, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116179, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045635, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.15, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.334631, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 97696, "relative_activity": 3.488701, "balance": 1.334631, "dry_up": 1.846525, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04613, "annualized_volatility": 0.275965, "from_high_reference": -0.203125, "from_low_reference": 0.02 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.277599, "fair_value_reference": 0.279824, "structural_low": 0.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.037152, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.136364, "median_excess_return": 0.030482, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.534388, "worst_return": -0.058824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.03719, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.003082, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.26984, "worst_return": -0.092593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.013333, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.066229, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.165226, "worst_return": -0.053571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"relative_strength": -3.703719, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.029888, "energy": 22.415209, "activity_lines": [ 0.278667, 0.273435, 0.272816, 0.276637 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.26, "volume": 13505, "typical_volume": 20238.7, "trend": 0.280599, "fair_value": 0.281101, "relative_strength": -9.589575, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.772681, "energy": 21.756203, "activity_lines": [ 0.273, 0.271654, 0.271301, 0.275222 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.275, "volume": 15278, "typical_volume": 20941.5, "trend": 0.280099, "fair_value": 0.280747, "relative_strength": -4.672818, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.503027, "energy": 14.214515, "activity_lines": [ 0.273333, 0.272631, 0.271359, 0.27486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.25, "volume": 80358, "typical_volume": 23982.15, "trend": 0.278766, "fair_value": 0.280405, "relative_strength": -12.719684, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.449965, "energy": 44.334694, "activity_lines": [ 0.265333, 0.268906, 0.269106, 0.272918 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.255, "volume": 97696, "typical_volume": 28003.55, "trend": 0.277599, "fair_value": 0.279824, "relative_strength": -11.617867, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.759852, "energy": 60.063507, "activity_lines": [ 0.26, 0.266302, 0.267545, 0.271385 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }