{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3ef9862-f636-4782-8be5-f67785a16848", "symbol": "HOMZ", "name": "ETF SERIES SOLUTIONS HOYA CAPITAL HOUSING ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.9, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 28.453, "architecture_energy": 23.132, "architecture_maturity": 24.563, "architecture_confidence": 48.59, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.29, "rotation_up": 38.66, "upward_expansion": 34.05, "deceleration": 46.27, "rotation_down": 28.86, "downward_expansion": 20.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.420678, 46.424945, 45.539554, 45.182087 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 47.4128, "trend_reference": 45.301021, "distance_from_trend": 0.046617, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.78978, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.10804, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.176247, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.018916, "excess_performance": -0.144541, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046617, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006558, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.10804, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060329, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071762, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056071, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.018916, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.702001, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9803, "relative_activity": 0.698533, "balance": 1.702001, "dry_up": 0.969238, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036811, "annualized_volatility": 0.210358, "from_high_reference": -0.041614, "from_low_reference": 0.159558 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.301021, "fair_value_reference": 42.78978, "structural_low": 40.888689, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.014614, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.004924, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.12753, "worst_return": -0.098095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.063907, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.008056, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.190446, "worst_return": -0.099697, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.019972, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.04137, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.076844, "worst_return": -0.045853, "sufficient": false }, { 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005571, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.101428, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069554, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.089237, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060294, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": 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"typical_volume": 14223.6, "trend": 45.298219, "fair_value": 42.665549, "relative_strength": -6.036017, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.236344, "energy": 37.860739, "activity_lines": [ 46.563937, 46.146917, 45.153191, 45.039677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.4047, "volume": 10340, "typical_volume": 14118.2, "trend": 45.311923, "fair_value": 42.720286, "relative_strength": -8.227951, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.11722, "energy": 16.018778, "activity_lines": [ 46.08453, 46.120818, 45.256833, 45.046547 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.4128, "volume": 9803, "typical_volume": 14033.7, "trend": 45.301021, "fair_value": 42.78978, "relative_strength": -7.176247, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.453235, "energy": 23.131886, "activity_lines": [ 46.420678, 46.424945, 45.539554, 45.182087 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }