{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "a3f0d197-9af3-46d2-b827-47db1ac3792d",
    "symbol": "6010",
    "name": "The National Agricultural Development Company",
    "exchange": "SAU",
    "country": "SA",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^TASI.SR",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -75.405,
    "architecture_energy": 88.059,
    "architecture_maturity": 41.243,
    "architecture_confidence": 81.057,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 1.73,
        "rotation_up": 8.76,
        "upward_expansion": 21.2,
        "deceleration": 37.09,
        "rotation_down": 83.81,
        "downward_expansion": 99.2
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        14.562667,
        15.104182,
        15.691238,
        16.080645
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 14.36,
    "trend_reference": 16.708,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.140531,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 23.458751,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.387862,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -20.069087,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.184091,
    "excess_performance": -0.152261,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.140531,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.064676,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.387862,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.052943,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.200691,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.005699,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.184091,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.89602,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2705136,
      "relative_activity": 0.608016,
      "balance": 0.89602,
      "dry_up": 0.681604,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.0503,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.164255,
      "from_high_reference": -0.367401,
      "from_low_reference": 0.024251
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 16.708,
      "fair_value_reference": 23.458751,
      "structural_low": 14.02,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 35,
        "median_return": -0.015072,
        "positive_rate": 0.371429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.628571,
        "median_excess_return": -0.014982,
        "regime_survival": 0.885714,
        "best_return": 0.15712,
        "worst_return": -0.170334,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": -0.035233,
        "positive_rate": 0.3,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.7,
        "median_excess_return": -0.080211,
        "regime_survival": 0.6,
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        "worst_return": -0.222222,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.050072,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": -0.066278,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
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        "worst_return": -0.124701,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.236494,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.145732,
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        "best_return": 0.826923,
        "worst_return": -0.25608,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2023-12-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.198811,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.096296,
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-05-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.214777,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.098529,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-09-19",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-10-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.00091,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": true
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 4320492.3,
        "trend": 16.998667,
        "fair_value": 23.571634,
        "relative_strength": -19.464728,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 14.05,
        "volume": 2879752,
        "typical_volume": 4339800.9,
        "trend": 16.842667,
        "fair_value": 23.518413,
        "relative_strength": -20.492281,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -89.138087,
        "energy": 90.361925,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.828,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 14.36,
        "volume": 2705136,
        "typical_volume": 4449122.1,
        "trend": 16.708,
        "fair_value": 23.458751,
        "relative_strength": -20.069087,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -75.405003,
        "energy": 88.059212,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}