{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3f92ede-e50c-4fbc-888e-03cd51caa1ec", "symbol": "CPRT", "name": "Copart Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.612, "architecture_energy": 48.238, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.581, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.72, "rotation_up": 23.44, "upward_expansion": 7.06, "deceleration": 60.21, "rotation_down": 53.99, "downward_expansion": 80.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.755667, 29.017455, 30.302286, 31.475355 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 29.66, "trend_reference": 33.521833, "distance_from_trend": -0.115204, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 47.497051, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.37554, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.774907, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.265114, "excess_performance": -0.452568, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.115204, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090703, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.37554, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072757, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.317749, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023979, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.265114, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.970932, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44954557, "relative_activity": 0.898294, "balance": 0.970932, "dry_up": 1.154646, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070892, "annualized_volatility": 0.274796, "from_high_reference": -0.408102, "from_low_reference": 0.106304 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.521833, "fair_value_reference": 47.497051, "structural_low": 26.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.02506, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.015328, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.118769, "worst_return": -0.118841, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.050943, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.048259, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.218993, "worst_return": -0.201033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.008586, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.036063, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.413722, "worst_return": -0.20481, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-17", "close": 27.61, "volume": 59703066, "typical_volume": 48803871.45, "trend": 34.527833, "fair_value": 47.789904, "relative_strength": -36.434733, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.104785, "energy": 76.346864, "activity_lines": [ 28.631333, 29.724091, 31.119024, 32.49586 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.94, "volume": 50039409, "typical_volume": 48846538.25, "trend": 34.149167, "fair_value": 47.685, "relative_strength": -33.777121, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.591453, "energy": 73.914522, "activity_lines": [ 28.217, 29.231636, 30.715714, 32.070839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.12, "volume": 76437062, "typical_volume": 50308460.2, "trend": 33.860833, "fair_value": 47.588494, "relative_strength": -30.487254, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.156232, "energy": 57.808655, "activity_lines": [ 28.348667, 29.033, 30.471452, 31.746376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.66, "volume": 44954557, "typical_volume": 50044363.8, "trend": 33.521833, "fair_value": 47.497051, "relative_strength": -31.774907, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.612401, "energy": 48.237914, "activity_lines": [ 28.755667, 29.017455, 30.302286, 31.475355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }