{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3fdfc5e-533b-4a45-b216-cc7120c1559c", "symbol": "CVLG", "name": "Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.254, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.961, "architecture_energy": 19.063, "architecture_maturity": 90.091, "architecture_confidence": 92.751, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.16, "rotation_up": 24.18, "upward_expansion": 61.38, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 36.56, "downward_expansion": 25.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.758, 42.004909, 40.569542, 37.764651 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 34.65, "trend_reference": 34.183654, "distance_from_trend": 0.013642, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.444576, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.361783, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.957081, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.195399, "excess_performance": 0.069774, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013642, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.268245, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.361783, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033279, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.079571, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133232, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.195399, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.498719, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1281964, "relative_activity": 1.376958, "balance": 1.498719, "dry_up": 1.298997, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124164, "annualized_volatility": 0.54723, "from_high_reference": -0.305333, "from_low_reference": 0.939457 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.183654, "fair_value_reference": 25.444576, "structural_low": 24.380785, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0105, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": -0.01893, "regime_survival": 0.68, "best_return": 0.328366, "worst_return": -0.248536, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.026868, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.025812, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.250308, "worst_return": -0.136481, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.079665, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.001044, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.36178, "worst_return": -0.063711, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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41.16898, 36.554441, 33.806327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 43.94, "volume": 534710, "typical_volume": 840163.85, "trend": 31.01224, "fair_value": 24.89815, "relative_strength": 48.140283, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.567513, "energy": 66.91905, "activity_lines": [ 44.136667, 42.091726, 37.570339, 34.68836 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 46.11, "volume": 659206, "typical_volume": 823277.85, "trend": 31.780525, "fair_value": 25.057244, "relative_strength": 51.850738, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.963474, "energy": 68.440836, "activity_lines": [ 44.803333, 43.228569, 38.719134, 35.662409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 47.34, "volume": 1000022, "typical_volume": 846375.4, "trend": 32.607734, "fair_value": 25.216569, "relative_strength": 56.392245, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.737108, "energy": 68.978658, "activity_lines": [ 45.707333, 44.362065, 39.905426, 36.666246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.75, "volume": 807574, "typical_volume": 856549.2, "trend": 33.421582, "fair_value": 25.339352, "relative_strength": 53.749628, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.682623, "energy": 65.497997, "activity_lines": [ 46.288667, 45.131135, 40.949694, 37.57865 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.52, "volume": 1747966, "typical_volume": 902848.45, "trend": 33.865411, "fair_value": 25.392854, "relative_strength": 15.007461, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.071503, "energy": 36.142053, "activity_lines": [ 42.852, 43.630477, 40.826902, 37.714032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.65, "volume": 1281964, "typical_volume": 931011.85, "trend": 34.183654, "fair_value": 25.444576, "relative_strength": 7.957081, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.960718, "energy": 19.063141, "activity_lines": [ 39.758, 42.004909, 40.569542, 37.764651 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }