{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3fe282f-72f8-4786-811b-5440563d1244", "symbol": "TSEL", "name": "TOUCHSTONE SANDS CAPITAL US SELECT GROWTH ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 89.376, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.924, "architecture_energy": 17.714, "architecture_maturity": 27.94, "architecture_confidence": 70.865, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.77, "rotation_up": 27.74, "upward_expansion": 49.57, "deceleration": 81.34, "rotation_down": 33.48, "downward_expansion": 27.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.117373, 28.271867, 28.330643, 27.835952 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 28.9166, "trend_reference": 27.315593, "distance_from_trend": 0.058611, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.157433, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.064777, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.024759, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.124105, "excess_performance": -0.063348, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058611, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001181, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.064777, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000431, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100248, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045338, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.124105, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.302498, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 86061, "relative_activity": 0.53132, "balance": 0.302498, "dry_up": 0.287521, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049119, "annualized_volatility": 0.237011, "from_high_reference": -0.069008, "from_low_reference": 0.227881 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.315593, "fair_value_reference": 27.157433, "structural_low": 23.55, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06503, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042442, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-03", "close": 25.5139, "volume": 4265, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-10", "close": 24.8399, "volume": 21997, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": 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null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 28.2692, "volume": 67061, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 28.5303, "volume": 32217, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 29.1219, "volume": 22638, "typical_volume": 173979.3, "trend": 27.400663, "fair_value": 27.120416, "relative_strength": -11.422, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.325248, "energy": 37.842525, "activity_lines": [ 28.80848, 28.798053, 28.20092, 27.693403 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.7071, "volume": 46280, "typical_volume": 170050.85, "trend": 27.370213, "fair_value": 27.127659, "relative_strength": -11.638045, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.962172, "energy": 19.400425, "activity_lines": [ 28.451867, 28.602707, 28.227626, 27.713174 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.2281, "volume": 18215, "typical_volume": 164155.35, "trend": 27.310377, "fair_value": 27.128884, "relative_strength": -11.319916, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.804057, "energy": 15.353083, "activity_lines": [ 27.977627, 28.337647, 28.19915, 27.704005 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.7393, "volume": 35730, "typical_volume": 161157.1, "trend": 27.30035, "fair_value": 27.136239, "relative_strength": -9.718295, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.449038, "energy": 14.095571, "activity_lines": [ 27.83362, 28.189295, 28.214482, 27.731677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.9166, "volume": 86061, "typical_volume": 161975.8, "trend": 27.315593, "fair_value": 27.157433, "relative_strength": -10.024759, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.923628, "energy": 17.713872, "activity_lines": [ 28.117373, 28.271867, 28.330643, 27.835952 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }